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Edmonton Oilers at Philadelphia Flyers

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OilersFlyers

Sun 6:30 PM CT

Lean · MoneylineNot a strong play

EDM ML

-155 at lock63%

Model projects EDM 3.64 – 2.50 PHI · edge +1.8%; moneylines aren't strong-play markets · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

L. Draisaitl · EDM
Center
C. McDavid · EDM
Center
M. Michkov · PHI
Right wing
T. Zegras · PHI
Center

Data-Driven Pick · T. Konecny Under 1.5 SOG

Strong play+100

Edmonton Oilers

16-3-3 · W5

83 PF · 58 PA

3.64

Projected

Philadelphia Flyers

7-10-6 · W2

55 PF · 75 PA

2.50

EDM 67%PHI 33%

Projected EDM 3.64–2.50 PHI · most likely 3–2

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

PHI win

50%

42% (no-vig)

Total

5.97

6.5

Gap: +8 pts of win %, -0.53 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,936 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2382 vs old model 0.2430. No free archive of NHL closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Win probability now also uses team expected goals from a shot-level model on official NHL play-by-play (distance, angle, shot type, strength): Brier 0.2381 → 0.2370 over 2023-24 to 2025-26, better in each season. Totals unchanged.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: EDM vs PHI

The model

How this number was built

EDM 3.64–2.50 PHI · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals -0.15 vs +0.54 · adj. shots -4.6 vs -3.4 · model PHI 3.0–3.0 EDM
Home field
+0.2 goals to PHI
Record
PHI 7-10-6 · EDM 16-3-3
Market prior
Blended 76% toward EDM -155 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

T. Konecny Under 1.5 SOG

+10054%

Shots · DraftKings

T. Konecny Under 0.5 pts
Points · PHI
-120
56%
M. Michkov Under 0.5 pts
Points · PHI
-120
56%
R. Nugent-Hopkins Under 0.5 pts
Points · EDM
-110
55%
T. Zegras Under 0.5 pts
Points · PHI
-105
55%
V. Podkolzin Under 1.5 SOG
Shots · EDM
+100
54%
L. Draisaitl Under 0.5 ast
Assists · EDM
+105
53%
E. Bouchard Under 0.5 ast
Assists · EDM
+105
53%
C. McDavid Under 2.5 SOG
Shots · EDM
+115
52%
T. Foerster Under 1.5 SOG
Shots · PHI
+120
51%
P. Martone Under 1.5 SOG
Shots · PHI
+120
51%
R. Nugent-Hopkins Under 1.5 SOG
Shots · EDM
+125
50%

Oilers vs Flyers prediction · Nov 15, 2026

The model projects Oilers 3.6, Flyers 2.5. Model win probability: Flyers 33%, Oilers 67%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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