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Calgary Flames at Los Angeles Kings

Final · ESPN+

3–2

FlamesKings

Final

Shot chart · 5 goals (G)

Calgary Flames

10-10-1 · W2

53 PF · 70 PA

Final

Los Angeles Kings

5-12-2 · L5

51 PF · 66 PA

CGY 31%LA 69%

Model: CGY 2.25–3.48 LA

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1021308246

Missed · off by 3

Most typical sim

CGY 2 – LA 4

Final

CGY 3 – LA 2

Winner: Kings (71%)
Spread: CGY +1.5 covers (55%)
Total: Over 5.5 (53%)
Score error (both teams)3

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
Z. Whitecloud shots on goal	—	1	0	off -1
S. Nemec shots on goal	—	1	1	off 0

Final from . Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: CGY vs LA

The model

How this number was built

CGY 2.25–3.48 LA · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals -0.39 vs -0.56 · adj. shots -0.1 vs -2.4 · model LA 3.4–2.6 CGY
Home field
+0.2 goals to LA
Record
LA 5-12-2 · CGY 10-10-1
Market prior
Blended 63% toward LA -175 / total 5.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	T
CGY	0	1	2	3
LA	0	0	2	2

How the goals went in

GOAL2nd 2:131–0
Morgan Frost Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (6)
GOAL3rd 6:211–1
Joel Armia Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (9), Joel Edmundson (2)
GOAL3rd 11:212–1
Matvei Gridin Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Pospisil (5)
GOAL3rd 18:463–1
Yegor Sharangovich Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none
GOAL3rd 19:043–2
Mats Zuccarello Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (10), Brandt Clarke (10)

Lean · MoneylineNot a strong playMiss

LA ML

-175 at lock65%

Model projected CGY 2.29 – 3.52 LA at lock · edge +1.2%; moneylines aren't strong-play markets · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

Prop K. Fiala · LA
2 S · under 2.5
M. Backlund · CGY
Forward
J. Armia · LA
3 HT
J. Hanley · CGY
2 BS · 1 HT
M. Anderson · LA
1 BS · 5 HT
D. Wolf · CGY
2 GA · 31 SA

Data-Driven Pick · K. Fiala Under 2.5 SOG

Strong play-115Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Flames vs Kings pick result · Nov 14, 2026

Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day