New York Islanders at Anaheim Ducks
Final · ESPN+
6–2Shot chart · 8 goals (G)
Model: NYI 3.91–2.80 ANA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1306380674
- Winner: Ducks (68%)
- Spread: NYI +1.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Over 6.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)5
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. LaCombe shots on goal | — | 1 | 0 | off -1 |
| M. Schaefer shots on goal | — | 3 | 0 | off -3 |
| B. Horvat shots on goal | — | 3 | 3 | off 0 |
| M. Granlund shots on goal | — | 2 | 1 | off -1 |
Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: NYI vs ANA
The model
How this number was built
NYI 3.91–2.80 ANA · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. goals -0.14 vs -0.23 · adj. shots -1.6 vs -2.7 · model ANA 3.3–3.1 NYI
- Home field+0.2 goals to ANA
- RecordANA 10-10-1 · NYI 10-6-4
- Market priorBlended 77% toward NYI -112 / total 6.5
Line score
| P1 | P2 | P3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| ANA | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
How the goals went in
GOAL1st 1:551–0Ben Hutton Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (1), Ondrej Palat (3)
- GOAL2nd 1:332–0
Bo Horvat Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Matias Maccelli (6), Matthew Schaefer (13)
GOAL2nd 2:352–1Nikita Nesterenko Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (5), Noah Warren (6)
- GOAL2nd 3:013–1
Simon Holmstrom Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Schaefer (14), Kyle Palmieri (4)
- GOAL2nd 8:284–1
Simon Holmstrom Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (11), Kyle Palmieri (5)
- GOAL2nd 10:285–1
Mitchell Chaffee Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Schaefer (15), Matias Maccelli (7)
- GOAL2nd 16:375–2
Cutter Gauthier Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Tristan Luneau (10), Leo Carlsson (21)
- GOAL3rd 2:416–2
Simon Holmstrom Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Victor Eklund (4)
Model projected NYI 3.92 – 2.80 ANA at lock · edge +5.2%; moneylines aren't strong-play markets · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Prop J. LaCombe · ANA
0 · under 0.5M. Barzal · NYI
1 TKL. Carlsson · ANA
ForwardT. DeAngelo · NYI
1 TKD. Helleson · ANA
3 BS · 2 HTS. Varlamov · NYI
2 GA · 28 SA
Data-Driven Pick · J. LaCombe Under 0.5 ast
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Islanders vs Ducks pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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