NHLFinal/SODelta Center

San Jose Sharks at Utah Mammoth

Final/SO · ESPN+

6–5

SharksMammoth

Final

Shot chart · 13 goals (G)

San Jose Sharks

10-11-2 · W2

65 PF · 84 PA

Final

Final/SO

Utah Mammoth

10-9-3 · L6

76 PF · 81 PA

SJ 30%UTA 70%

At lock: projected SJ 2.45–3.84 UTA

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1323158293

Missed · off by 4

Most typical sim

SJ 3 – UTA 4

Final

SJ 6 – UTA 5

Winner: Mammoth (72%)
Spread: SJ +1.5 covers (53%)
Total: Under 6.5 (52%)
Score error (both teams)4

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
M. Sergachev shots on goal	—	2	5	off 3
M. Weegar shots on goal	—	2	0	off -2

Final from . Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: SJ vs UTA

The model

How this number was built

SJ 2.45–3.84 UTA · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals +0.00 vs -0.72 · adj. shots +0.3 vs -3.6 · model UTA 3.7–2.5 SJ
Home field
+0.2 goals to UTA
Record
UTA 10-9-3 · SJ 10-11-2
Market prior
Blended 62% toward UTAH -185 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	OT	OT	T
SJ	1	2	2	0	1	6
UTA	3	1	1	0	0	5

How the goals went in

GOAL1st 2:150–1
Zac Jones Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Kailer Yamamoto (5), Clayton Keller (21)
GOAL1st 8:530–2
Mikhail Sergachev Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Kailer Yamamoto (6), Clayton Keller (22)
GOAL1st 11:351–2
Tyler Toffoli Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (9), Will Smith (8)
GOAL1st 12:401–3
Zac Jones Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Anders Lee (6)
GOAL2nd 3:072–3
Adam Gaudette Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Toffoli (7), Dmitry Orlov (10)
GOAL2nd 3:133–3
Zack Ostapchuk Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (2)
GOAL2nd 8:593–4
Jack McBain Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Carcone (2)
GOAL3rd 5:234–4
Eric Pohlkamp Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (16), Dmitry Orlov (11)
GOAL3rd 14:175–4
Dmitry Orlov Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Collin Graf (2), Mason Marchment (4)
GOAL3rd 16:225–5
Barrett Hayton Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Kailer Yamamoto (7), Mikhail Sergachev (16)
GOALSO 0:002–1
Vincent Trocheck Goal Wrist Shot
GOALSO 0:002–1
Macklin Celebrini Goal Backhand
GOALSO 0:002–1
Mason Marchment Goal Wrist Shot

Lean · TotalNot a strong playMiss

Under 6.5

-125 at lock53%

Model projected SJ 2.45 – 3.84 UTA at lock · edge -2.3%; totals in this league aren't strong-play markets · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

Prop W. Smith · SJ
0 S · under 2.5
M. Celebrini · SJ
2 HT
D. But · UTA
1 HT
S. Dickinson · SJ
1 HT · 1 TK
A. Duda · UTA
Defenseman
Y. Askarov · SJ
5 GA · 32 SA

Data-Driven Pick · W. Smith Under 2.5 SOG

Strong play-115Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Sharks vs Mammoth pick result · Nov 14, 2026

Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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