Buffalo Sabres at Dallas Stars
Final · ESPN+
0–2Shot chart · 2 goals (G)
Model: BUF 2.50–3.74 DAL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1339935912
- Winner: Stars (70%)
- Spread: BUF +1.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Under 6.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)5
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Lindell shots on goal | — | 1 | 4 | off 3 |
| O. Power shots on goal | — | 1 | 0 | off -1 |
| R. Dahlin shots on goal | — | 2 | 1 | off -1 |
| T. Harley shots on goal | — | 2 | 0 | off -2 |
Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: BUF vs DAL
The model
How this number was built
BUF 2.50–3.74 DAL · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. goals +0.09 vs -0.00 · adj. shots -3.4 vs -4.1 · model DAL 3.2–2.8 BUF
- Home field+0.2 goals to DAL
- RecordDAL 12-6-2 · BUF 8-9-4
- Market priorBlended 77% toward DAL -135 / total 6.5
Line score
| P1 | P2 | P3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DAL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
How the goals went in
GOAL2nd 16:230–1Jamie Benn Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Hryckowian (1), Nils Lundkvist (6)
- GOAL3rd 19:180–2
Wyatt Johnston Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (13), Roope Hintz (10)
Model projected BUF 2.49 – 3.75 DAL at lock · edge +3.6%; moneylines aren't strong-play markets · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Prop W. Johnston · DAL
1 S · under 2.5Z. Benson · BUF
2 HTJ. Benn · DAL
1 BS · 3 HTL. Crevier · BUF
DefensemanK. Burroughs · DAL
1 HTA. Lyon · BUF
2 GA · 30 SA
Data-Driven Pick · W. Johnston Under 2.5 SOG
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Sabres vs Stars pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day