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Florida Panthers at St. Louis Blues

Final · ESPN+

4–1

PanthersBlues

Final

Shot chart · 5 goals (G)

Florida Panthers

13-7-2 · W4

73 PF · 62 PA

Final

St. Louis Blues

9-10-2 · L2

56 PF · 63 PA

FLA 67%STL 33%

At lock: projected FLA 3.47–2.36 STL

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1356713531

Called it

Most typical sim

FLA 4 – STL 2

Final

FLA 4 – STL 1

Winner: Panthers (69%)
Spread: STL +1.5 covers (57%)
Total: Over 5.5 (53%)
Score error (both teams)1

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
S. Jones shots on goal	—	2	4	off 2
C. Parayko shots on goal	—	1	0	off -1
G. Forsling shots on goal	—	1	3	off 2
P. Broberg shots on goal	—	1	1	off 0

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: FLA vs STL

The model

How this number was built

FLA 3.47–2.36 STL · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals +0.10 vs -0.03 · adj. shots -3.2 vs -1.0 · model STL 3.2–3.0 FLA
Home field
+0.2 goals to STL
Record
STL 9-10-2 · FLA 13-7-2
Market prior
Blended 77% toward STL -112 / total 5.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	T
FLA	2	1	1	4
STL	0	0	1	1

How the goals went in

GOAL1st 5:121–0
Brady Tkachuk Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (9), Matthew Tkachuk (25)
GOAL1st 6:292–0
Dmitry Kulikov Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (4), Sandis Vilmanis (5)
GOAL2nd 3:283–0
Anton Lundell Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (12)
GOAL3rd 7:384–0
Sam Reinhart Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: none
GOAL3rd 17:544–1
Dylan Holloway Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Dalibor Dvorsky (2), Logan Mailloux (1)

Lean · MoneylineNot a strong playHit

FLA ML

-112 at lock59%

Model projected FLA 3.47 – 2.36 STL at lock · edge +5.8%; moneylines aren't strong-play markets · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

Prop S. Reinhart · FLA
4 S · over 2.5
S. Bennett · FLA
1 HT
P. Buchnevich · STL
1 HT
A. Ekblad · FLA
1 BS
J. Barron · STL
3 BS
J. Markstrom · FLA
1 GA · 24 SA

Data-Driven Pick · S. Reinhart Under 2.5 SOG

Strong play-110Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Panthers vs Blues pick result · Nov 14, 2026

Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day