NHLFinalNationwide Arena

Philadelphia Flyers at Columbus Blue Jackets

Final · ESPN+

4–3

FlyersBlue Jackets

Final

Shot chart · 7 goals (G)

Philadelphia Flyers

7-10-6 · W2

55 PF · 75 PA

Final

Columbus Blue Jackets

7-12 · L5

48 PF · 62 PA

PHI 31%CBJ 69%

Model: PHI 2.21–3.41 CBJ

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1373491150

Missed · off by 2

Most typical sim

PHI 2 – CBJ 3

Final

PHI 4 – CBJ 3

Winner: Blue Jackets (69%)
Spread: PHI +1.5 covers (56%)
Total: Under 5.5 (51%)
Score error (both teams)2

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
J. Drysdale shots on goal	—	1	1	off 0
I. Provorov shots on goal	—	2	2	off 0
Z. Werenski shots on goal	—	3	4	off 1
T. Sanheim shots on goal	—	1	1	off 0

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: PHI vs CBJ

The model

How this number was built

PHI 2.21–3.41 CBJ · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals -0.26 vs -0.15 · adj. shots -2.6 vs -3.9 · model CBJ 2.9–2.8 PHI
Home field
+0.2 goals to CBJ
Record
CBJ 7-12 · PHI 7-10-6
Market prior
Blended 77% toward CBJ -135 / total 5.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	T
PHI	1	2	1	4
CBJ	2	1	0	3

How the goals went in

GOAL1st 3:190–1
Dmitri Voronkov Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (8), Damon Severson (5)
GOAL1st 4:190–2
Matthew Knies Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Luca Del Bel Belluz (1), Kent Johnson (10)
GOAL1st 16:061–2
Trevor Zegras Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Tyson Foerster (3)
GOAL2nd 1:192–2
Matvei Michkov Goal (11) Backhand, assists: none
GOAL2nd 2:213–2
Denver Barkey Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Porter Martone (6), Jamie Drysdale (9)
GOAL2nd 5:443–3
Adam Fantilli Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (5), Zach Werenski (13)
GOAL3rd 11:544–3
Denver Barkey Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Noel Acciari (2)

Lean · MoneylineNot a strong playMiss

CBJ ML

-135 at lock62%

Model projected PHI 2.21 – 3.41 CBJ at lock · edge +4.5%; moneylines aren't strong-play markets · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

Prop T. Foerster · PHI
1 S · under 1.5
N. Acciari · PHI
2 BS · 2 HT
C. Coyle · CBJ
5 HT
O. Bonk · PHI
Defenseman
J. Christiansen · CBJ
2 BS
J. Woll · PHI
3 GA · 31 SA

Data-Driven Pick · T. Foerster Under 1.5 SOG

Strong play-115Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Flyers vs Blue Jackets pick result · Nov 14, 2026

Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day