NHLFinalCapital One Arena

New Jersey Devils at Washington Capitals

Final · ESPN+

7–4

DevilsCapitals

Final

Shot chart · 11 goals (G)

New Jersey Devils

16-6 · W3

87 PF · 65 PA

Final

Washington Capitals

10-9 · L3

66 PF · 72 PA

NJ 67%WSH 33%

Model: NJ 3.81–2.61 WSH

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1390268769

Winner called · off by 4

Most typical sim

NJ 4 – WSH 3

Final

NJ 7 – WSH 4

Winner: Devils (69%)
Spread: WSH +1.5 covers (55%)
Total: Under 6.5 (51%)
Score error (both teams)4

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
M. Roy shots on goal	—	1	3	off 2
J. Chychrun shots on goal	—	3	2	off -1

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: NJ vs WSH

The model

How this number was built

NJ 3.81–2.61 WSH · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals +0.07 vs +0.29 · adj. shots -3.6 vs +0.8 · model WSH 3.1–3.3 NJ
Home field
+0.2 goals to WSH
Record
WSH 10-9 · NJ 16-6
Market prior
Blended 77% toward NJ -142 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	T
NJ	2	2	3	7
WSH	3	0	1	4

How the goals went in

GOAL1st 5:130–1
Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (11), Aliaksei Protas (8)
GOAL1st 8:151–1
Lenni Hameenaho Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Cody Glass (4), Jesper Boqvist (3)
GOAL1st 14:341–2
Ryan Leonard Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (13), Cole Hutson (8)
GOAL1st 17:082–2
Connor Brown Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Jesper Bratt (17), Luke Hughes (6)
GOAL1st 18:402–3
Anthony Beauvillier Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Cole Hutson (9), Boone Jenner (2)
GOAL2nd 10:333–3
Jesper Boqvist Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Lenni Hameenaho (1), Luke Hughes (7)
GOAL2nd 16:184–3
Timo Meier Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Arseny Gritsyuk (9), Luke Evangelista (7)
GOAL3rd 0:565–3
Nico Hischier Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Brown (4), Dougie Hamilton (8)
GOAL3rd 1:225–4
Ilya Protas Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Hutson (10), Ryan Leonard (7)
GOAL3rd 3:186–4
Evan Rodrigues Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Lenni Hameenaho (2), Jesper Boqvist (4)
GOAL3rd 16:457–4
Evan Rodrigues Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Brown (5), Luke Hughes (8)

Lean · MoneylineNot a strong playHit

NJ ML

-120 at lock60%

Model projected NJ 3.77 – 2.58 WSH at lock · edge +5.2%; moneylines aren't strong-play markets · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

Prop E. Rodrigues · NJ
4 S · over 1.5
J. Boqvist · NJ
1 HT · 1 TK
A. Beauvillier · WSH
2 HT
D. Chisholm · NJ
1 BS
J. Chychrun · WSH
Defenseman
C. Hellebuyck · NJ
4 GA · 47 SA

Data-Driven Pick · E. Rodrigues Under 1.5 SOG

Strong play-115Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Devils vs Capitals pick result · Nov 14, 2026

Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day