Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins
Final · ESPN+
4–1Shot chart · 5 goals (G)
Model: OTT 3.73–2.57 PIT
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1407046388
- Winner: Senators (69%)
- Spread: PIT +1.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Under 6.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)2
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Sanderson shots on goal | — | 2 | 5 | off 3 |
| E. Karlsson shots on goal | — | 2 | 1 | off -1 |
| K. Letang shots on goal | — | 1 | 0 | off -1 |
| T. Chabot shots on goal | — | 1 | 3 | off 2 |
Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: OTT vs PIT
The model
How this number was built
OTT 3.73–2.57 PIT · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. goals -0.11 vs +0.33 · adj. shots -3.1 vs -2.6 · model PIT 3.1–3.2 OTT
- Home field+0.2 goals to PIT
- RecordPIT 7-12-2 · OTT 14-6-2
- Market priorBlended 77% toward OTT -135 / total 6.5
Line score
| P1 | P2 | P3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
How the goals went in
GOAL1st 19:520–1Tommy Novak Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Egor Chinakhov (3), Ben Kindel (5)
GOAL2nd 8:411–1Michael Amadio Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none
- GOAL2nd 16:122–1
Claude Giroux Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Michael Amadio (6)
- GOAL3rd 14:183–1
Tim Stützle Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (8), Tyler Kleven (3)
- GOAL3rd 19:284–1
Thomas Chabot Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none
Model projected OTT 3.80 – 2.63 PIT at lock · edge +4.0%; moneylines aren't strong-play markets · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Prop T. Chabot · OTT
3 S · over 1.5M. Amadio · OTT
1 BS · 1 HTJ. Brazeau · PIT
1 BS · 1 HTD. Carlile · PIT
1 BSL. Ullmark · OTT
1 GA · 17 SAS. Murashov · PIT
3 GA · 33 SA
Data-Driven Pick · T. Chabot Under 1.5 SOG
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Senators vs Penguins pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day