Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning
Final · ESPN+
2–0Shot chart · 2 goals (G)
At lock: projected DET 2.49–3.71 TB
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1423824007
- Winner: Lightning (70%)
- Spread: DET +1.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Under 6.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)5
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Seider shots on goal | — | 2 | 0 | off -2 |
| J. Faulk shots on goal | — | 1 | 2 | off 1 |
Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: DET vs TB
The model
How this number was built
DET 2.49–3.71 TB · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. goals +0.58 vs -0.37 · adj. shots -1.9 vs -2.7 · model TB 3.5–2.7 DET
- Home field+0.2 goals to TB
- RecordTB 13-6-2 · DET 9-10-3
- Market priorBlended 63% toward TB -205 / total 5.5
Line score
| P1 | P2 | P3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
How the goals went in
GOAL2nd 13:121–0Lucas Raymond Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: William Wallinder (4)
- GOAL3rd 19:172–0
Michael Brandsegg-Nygård Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (13), Andrew Copp (7)
Model projected DET 2.49 – 3.71 TB at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -2.3%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Prop J. Guentzel · TB
3 S · over 2.5V. Arvidsson · DET
1 HTC. Geekie · TB
1 BS · 2 HTB. Chiarot · DET
2 BS · 1 HTJ. Carlson · TB
2 BS · 3 HTD. Tarasov · DET
31 SA
Data-Driven Pick · J. Guentzel Under 2.5 SOG
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Red Wings vs Lightning pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day