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Colorado Avalanche at Montreal Canadiens

Final · ESPN+

4–1

AvalancheCanadiens

Final

Shot chart · 5 goals (G)

Colorado Avalanche

13-6-3 · W2

89 PF · 65 PA

Final

Montreal Canadiens

12-4-5 · L2

69 PF · 65 PA

COL 34%MTL 66%

Model: COL 2.65–3.74 MTL

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1440601626

Missed · off by 4

Most typical sim

COL 3 – MTL 4

Final

COL 4 – MTL 1

Winner: Canadiens (68%)
Spread: COL +1.5 covers (58%)
Total: Under 6.5 (50%)
Score error (both teams)4

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
M. Matheson shots on goal	—	1	0	off -1
C. Makar shots on goal	—	2	0	off -2
L. Hutson shots on goal	—	2	3	off 1
D. Toews shots on goal	—	1	1	off 0

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: COL vs MTL

The model

How this number was built

COL 2.65–3.74 MTL · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals +0.49 vs +0.71 · adj. shots -2.9 vs +1.3 · model MTL 3.1–3.3 COL
Home field
+0.2 goals to MTL
Record
MTL 12-4-5 · COL 13-6-3
Market prior
Blended 77% toward MTL -130 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	T
COL	2	0	2	4
MTL	0	1	0	1

How the goals went in

GOAL1st 3:571–0
Fedor Svechkov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Logan O'Connor (3), Brett Kulak (5)
GOAL1st 15:552–0
Brock Nelson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (6), Sam Malinski (9)
GOAL2nd 10:252–1
Nick Suzuki Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (11), Cole Caufield (7)
GOAL3rd 4:143–1
Artturi Lehkonen Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (12), T.J. Hughes (8)
GOAL3rd 19:474–1
Nicolas Roy Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: none

Lean · MoneylineNot a strong playMiss

MTL ML

-118 at lock59%

Model projected COL 2.61 – 3.71 MTL at lock · edge +4.7%; moneylines aren't strong-play markets · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

Prop L. Hutson · MTL
3 S · over 1.5
G. Brindley · COL
1 HT
J. Anderson · MTL
3 HT
B. Burns · COL
Defenseman
A. Carrier · MTL
1 BS · 2 HT
M. Blackwood · COL
1 GA · 26 SA

Data-Driven Pick · L. Hutson Under 1.5 SOG

Strong play+115Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Avalanche vs Canadiens pick result · Nov 14, 2026

Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day