NHLFinalScotiabank Arena

Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs

Final · NHL Net

1–0

OilersMaple Leafs

Final

Shot chart · 1 goal (G)

Edmonton Oilers

16-3-3 · W5

83 PF · 58 PA

Final

Toronto Maple Leafs

8-13-2 · L7

69 PF · 77 PA

EDM 67%TOR 33%

Model: EDM 3.92–2.73 TOR

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1457379245

Winner called · off by 6

Most typical sim

EDM 4 – TOR 3

Final

EDM 1 – TOR 0

Winner: Oilers (69%)
Spread: TOR +1.5 covers (55%)
Total: Over 6.5 (55%)
Score error (both teams)6

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
J. McCabe shots on goal	—	1	2	off 1
C. McDavid shots on goal	—	3	3	off 0
D. Raddysh shots on goal	—	2	1	off -1
E. Bouchard shots on goal	—	2	2	off 0

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: EDM vs TOR

The model

How this number was built

EDM 3.92–2.73 TOR · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals -0.43 vs +0.54 · adj. shots -3.1 vs -0.3 · model TOR 3.1–3.3 EDM
Home field
+0.2 goals to TOR
Record
TOR 8-13-2 · EDM 16-3-3
Market prior
Blended 76% toward EDM -142 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	T
EDM	0	1	0	1
TOR	0	0	0	0

How the goals went in

GOAL2nd 15:341–0
Evan Bouchard Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (39), Leon Draisaitl (20)

Lean · MoneylineNot a strong playHit

EDM ML

-155 at lock62%

Model projected EDM 3.96 – 2.77 TOR at lock · edge +1.6%; moneylines aren't strong-play markets · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

Prop W. Nylander · TOR
1 S · under 2.5
C. Dach · EDM
3 HT
T. Blueger · TOR
3 BS · 1 HT
E. Bouchard · EDM
2 BS · 1 TK
O. Ekman-Larsson · TOR
4 HT
D. Levi · EDM
19 SA

Data-Driven Pick · W. Nylander Under 2.5 SOG

Strong play-120Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Oilers vs Maple Leafs pick result · Nov 14, 2026

Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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