New York Islanders at Los Angeles Kings
Final · Disney+
5–2Shot chart · 7 goals (G)
Model: NYI 2.27–3.56 LA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 11, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3453665643
- Winner: Kings (72%)
- Spread: NYI +1.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 5.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)5
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Schaefer shots on goal | — | 3 | 3 | off 0 |
| B. Horvat shots on goal | — | 3 | 2 | off -1 |
Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: NYI vs LA
The model
How this number was built
NYI 2.27–3.56 LA · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. goals -0.39 vs -0.23 · adj. shots -1.2 vs -2.7 · back-to-back: LA, NYI · model LA 3.3–2.7 NYI
- Home field+0.2 goals to LA
- RecordLA 5-10-2 · NYI 8-6-4
- Market priorBlended 78% toward LA -125 / total 5.5
Line score
| P1 | P2 | P3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| LA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
How the goals went in
GOAL1st 5:501–0Brayden Schenn Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitchell Chaffee (1), Ryan Pulock (2)
GOAL1st 8:551–1Trevor Moore Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Brandt Clarke (9), Joel Armia (4)
- GOAL1st 12:562–1
Matthew Schaefer Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Matias Maccelli (5), Brayden Schenn (9)
- GOAL2nd 5:353–1
Victor Eklund Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (10), Ryan Pulock (3)
- GOAL2nd 7:523–2
Quinton Byfield Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (11), Kevin Fiala (1)
- GOAL3rd 0:394–2
Simon Holmstrom Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none
- GOAL3rd 17:145–2
Bo Horvat Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (6), Kyle Palmieri (3)
Model projected NYI 2.25 – 3.54 LA at lock · edge +5.9%; moneylines aren't strong-play markets · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Prop K. Fiala · LA
0 S · under 2.5M. Chaffee · NYI
1 BSJ. Armia · LA
4 HTT. DeAngelo · NYI
1 BSM. Anderson · LA
4 BS · 2 HTI. Sorokin · NYI
2 GA · 28 SA
Data-Driven Pick · K. Fiala Under 2.5 SOG
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Islanders vs Kings pick result · Nov 12, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day