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Washington Capitals at New Jersey Devils

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2–5

CapitalsDevils

Final

Shot chart · 7 goals (G)

Washington Capitals

10-7-0 · L2

62 PF · 65 PA

Final

New Jersey Devils

14-6-0 · W2

80 PF · 61 PA

WSH 31%NJ 69%

Model: WSH 2.49–3.78 NJ

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 11, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3503998500

Called it

Most typical sim

WSH 3 – NJ 4

Final

WSH 2 – NJ 5

Winner: Devils (71%)
Spread: WSH +1.5 covers (54%)
Total: Under 6.5 (53%)
Score error (both teams)2

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
M. Roy shots on goal	—	1	1	off 0
J. Chychrun shots on goal	—	3	4	off 1

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: WSH vs NJ

The model

How this number was built

WSH 2.49–3.78 NJ · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals +0.29 vs +0.07 · adj. shots +0.8 vs -3.6 · back-to-back: NJ, WSH · model NJ 3.5–2.9 WSH
Home field
+0.2 goals to NJ
Record
NJ 14-6-0 · WSH 10-7-0
Market prior
Blended 78% toward NJ -155 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	T
WSH	1	1	0	2
NJ	1	1	3	5

How the goals went in

GOAL1st 2:200–1
Evan Rodrigues Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Timo Meier (5), Arseny Gritsyuk (7)
GOAL1st 14:101–1
Ryan Leonard Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Cole Hutson (7)
GOAL2nd 2:112–1
Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (7), Jack St. Ivany (5)
GOAL2nd 9:512–2
Lenni Hameenaho Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Brenden Dillon (1), Cody Glass (3)
GOAL3rd 6:272–3
Vladislav Kolyachonok Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (5)
GOAL3rd 17:072–4
Stefan Noesen Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Connor Brown (3)
GOAL3rd 19:152–5
Jack Hughes Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Arseny Gritsyuk (8), Jesper Bratt (16)

Lean · MoneylineNot a strong playHit

NJ ML

-148 at lock63%

Model projected WSH 2.48 – 3.78 NJ at lock · edge +3.3%; moneylines aren't strong-play markets · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

Prop C. Brown · NJ
2 S · over 1.5
A. Beauvillier · WSH
1 HT
J. Boqvist · NJ
2 HT
J. Chychrun · WSH
2 BS · 3 HT
D. Chisholm · NJ
2 BS · 1 HT
L. Thompson · WSH
4 GA · 28 SA

Data-Driven Pick · C. Brown Under 1.5 SOG

Strong play-115Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Capitals vs Devils pick result · Nov 12, 2026

Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day