Detroit Red Wings at Florida Panthers
Final · Disney+
4–5Shot chart · 9 goals (G)
Model: DET 2.30–3.53 FLA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 11, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2994999625
- Winner: Panthers (71%)
- Spread: DET +1.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Over 5.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)3
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Jones shots on goal | — | 2 | 2 | off 0 |
| M. Seider shots on goal | — | 2 | 2 | off 0 |
| G. Forsling shots on goal | — | 1 | 2 | off 1 |
| J. Faulk shots on goal | — | 1 | 3 | off 2 |
Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: DET vs FLA
The model
How this number was built
DET 2.30–3.53 FLA · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. goals -0.03 vs -0.37 · adj. shots -2.1 vs -1.9 · back-to-back: FLA, DET · model FLA 3.3–2.9 DET
- Home field+0.2 goals to FLA
- RecordFLA 11-7-2 · DET 7-10-3
- Market priorBlended 77% toward FLA -205 / total 5.5
Line score
| P1 | P2 | P3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| FLA | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
How the goals went in
GOAL1st 3:520–1Sam Reinhart Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (8), Seth Jones (19)
GOAL1st 4:071–1J.T. Compher Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Carter Mazur (4), Moritz Seider (11)
- GOAL1st 13:142–1
Andreas Englund Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none
- GOAL2nd 0:173–1
Lucas Raymond Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (6)
- GOAL2nd 12:084–1
Marco Kasper Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: William Wallinder (3), Moritz Seider (12)
- GOAL2nd 19:424–2
Gustav Forsling Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (9)
- GOAL3rd 2:324–3
Anton Lundell Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (10), Aaron Ekblad (7)
- GOAL3rd 16:294–4
Lars Eller Goal (3) Batted, assists: Niko Mikkola (3)
- GOAL3rd 17:204–5
Anton Lundell Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (11), Matthew Tkachuk (24)
Model projected DET 2.31 – 3.55 FLA at lock · edge +1.6%; moneylines aren't strong-play markets · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Prop M. Brandsegg-Nygard · DET
1 S · under 1.5M. Appleton · DET
ForwardS. Bennett · FLA
1 BS · 1 HTB. Chiarot · DET
3 BS · 1 HTA. Ekblad · FLA
2 BS · 1 HTJ. Gibson · DET
5 GA · 29 SA
Data-Driven Pick · M. Brandsegg-Nygard Under 1.5 SOG
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Red Wings vs Panthers pick result · Nov 12, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day