Minnesota Wild at Toronto Maple Leafs
Final · ESPN+
5–2Shot chart · 7 goals (G)
Model: MIN 3.81–2.55 TOR
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 11, 7:06 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3162775815
- Winner: Wild (69%)
- Spread: TOR +1.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Under 6.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)2
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kaprizov shots on goal | — | 3 | 5 | off 2 |
| J. McCabe shots on goal | — | 1 | 2 | off 1 |
| D. Raddysh shots on goal | — | 2 | 2 | off 0 |
| Q. Hughes shots on goal | — | 2 | 4 | off 2 |
Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MIN vs TOR
The model
How this number was built
MIN 3.81–2.55 TOR · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. goals -0.43 vs +0.70 · adj. shots -2.8 vs +1.1 · back-to-back: TOR, MIN · model TOR 2.9–3.4 MIN
- Home field+0.2 goals to TOR
- RecordTOR 8-11-2 · MIN 14-3-4
- Market priorBlended 77% toward MIN -180 / total 6.5
Line score
| P1 | P2 | P3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| TOR | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
How the goals went in
GOAL1st 17:531–0Matt Boldy Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (16)
GOAL2nd 4:051–1Auston Matthews Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Zack MacEwen (3), Darren Raddysh (12)
- GOAL2nd 6:591–2
Zack MacEwen Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (3), Troy Stecher (4)
- GOAL2nd 9:552–2
Matt Boldy Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (22), Kirill Kaprizov (17)
- GOAL3rd 3:593–2
Matt Boldy Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (4), Zach Bogosian (1)
- GOAL3rd 7:344–2
Michael McCarron Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (4), Danila Yurov (2)
- GOAL3rd 19:035–2
Danila Yurov Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Foligno (1), Kirill Kaprizov (18)
Model projected MIN 3.82 – 2.58 TOR at lock · edge +1.1%; moneylines aren't strong-play markets · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Prop J. Eriksson Ek · MIN
3 S · over 2.5M. Boldy · MIN
1 BS · 2 HTT. Blueger · TOR
ForwardZ. Bogosian · MIN
1 BS · 1 HTO. Ekman-Larsson · TOR
1 BS · 1 HTJ. Wallstedt · MIN
2 GA · 28 SA
Data-Driven Pick · J. Eriksson Ek Under 2.5 SOG
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Wild vs Maple Leafs pick result · Nov 12, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day