NHLFinalTD Garden

Montreal Canadiens at Boston Bruins

Final · ESPN+

5–2

CanadiensBruins

Final

Shot chart · 7 goals (G)

Montreal Canadiens

12-3-4 · L1

68 PF · 61 PA

Final

Boston Bruins

13-5-1 · L2

72 PF · 52 PA

MTL 32%BOS 68%

Model: MTL 2.48–3.73 BOS

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 11, 7:06 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3145998196

Missed · off by 4

Most typical sim

MTL 3 – BOS 4

Final

MTL 5 – BOS 2

Winner: Bruins (71%)
Spread: MTL +1.5 covers (54%)
Total: Under 6.5 (53%)
Score error (both teams)4

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
N. Dobson shots on goal	—	2	1	off -1
H. Lindholm shots on goal	—	1	2	off 1
C. McAvoy shots on goal	—	1	0	off -1
L. Hutson shots on goal	—	2	2	off 0

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: MTL vs BOS

The model

How this number was built

MTL 2.48–3.73 BOS · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals +0.65 vs +0.49 · adj. shots -1.7 vs -1.5 · back-to-back: BOS, MTL · model BOS 3.3–2.9 MTL
Home field
+0.2 goals to BOS
Record
BOS 13-5-1 · MTL 12-3-4
Market prior
Blended 77% toward BOS -125 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	T
MTL	2	3	0	5
BOS	0	1	1	2

How the goals went in

GOAL1st 2:341–0
Kirby Dach Goal (2) Wrap-around, assists: Arber Xhekaj (3), Alex Newhook (5)
GOAL1st 8:362–0
Josh Anderson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Evans (5), Mike Matheson (4)
GOAL2nd 4:243–0
Jake Evans Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (4)
GOAL2nd 8:144–0
Cole Caufield Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: none
GOAL2nd 14:155–0
Phillip Danault Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Zachary Bolduc (3), Alexandre Carrier (6)
GOAL2nd 14:535–1
Casey Mittelstadt Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (9), Nikita Zadorov (6)
GOAL3rd 0:535–2
Casey Mittelstadt Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (10), William Borgen (3)

Lean · MoneylineNot a strong playMiss

BOS ML

-120 at lock60%

Model projected MTL 2.48 – 3.77 BOS at lock · edge +5.9%; moneylines aren't strong-play markets · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

Prop D. Pastrnak · BOS
3 S · under 3.5
J. Anderson · MTL
1 BS · 3 HT
M. Eyssimont · BOS
Forward
A. Carrier · MTL
1 BS · 1 HT
W. Borgen · BOS
1 BS · 2 HT
J. Fowler · MTL
2 GA · 32 SA

Data-Driven Pick · D. Pastrnak Under 3.5 SOG

Strong play-110Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Canadiens vs Bruins pick result · Nov 12, 2026

Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day