NHLFinal/OTRogers Place

Philadelphia Flyers at Edmonton Oilers

Final/OT · ESPN+

2–3

FlyersOilers

Final

Shot chart · 5 goals (G)

Philadelphia Flyers

5-10-6 · W1

51 PF · 72 PA

Final

Final/OT

Edmonton Oilers

14-3-3 · W4

82 PF · 58 PA

PHI 31%EDM 69%

At lock: projected PHI 2.46–3.73 EDM

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 10, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3078887720

Called it

Most typical sim

PHI 3 – EDM 4

Final

PHI 2 – EDM 3

Winner: Oilers (70%)
Spread: PHI +1.5 covers (55%)
Total: Under 6.5 (53%)
Score error (both teams)2

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
J. Drysdale shots on goal	—	1	1	off 0
C. McDavid shots on goal	—	3	2	off -1
T. Sanheim shots on goal	—	1	3	off 2
E. Bouchard shots on goal	—	2	2	off 0

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: PHI vs EDM

The model

How this number was built

PHI 2.46–3.73 EDM · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals +0.54 vs -0.15 · adj. shots -3.4 vs -4.6 · back-to-back: EDM, PHI · model EDM 3.2–2.8 PHI
Home field
+0.2 goals to EDM
Record
EDM 14-3-3 · PHI 5-10-6
Market prior
Blended 77% toward EDM -192 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	OT	T
PHI	0	1	1	0	2
EDM	0	2	0	1	3

How the goals went in

GOAL2nd 4:130–1
Zach Hyman Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (7), Colton Dach (2)
GOAL2nd 14:030–2
Zach Hyman Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Connor McDavid (38), Evan Bouchard (22)
GOAL2nd 16:491–2
Tyson Foerster Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (2), Christian Dvorak (8)
GOAL3rd 11:422–2
Travis Sanheim Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Ristolainen (1), Matvei Michkov (5)
GOALOT 0:472–3
Evan Bouchard Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (19)

Lean · TotalNot a strong playHit

Under 6.5

-130 at lock54%

Model projected PHI 2.46 – 3.73 EDM at lock · edge -2.1%; totals in this league aren't strong-play markets · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

Prop L. Draisaitl · EDM
1 · under 1.5
N. Acciari · PHI
1 HT
C. Dach · EDM
4 HT
O. Bonk · PHI
Defenseman
E. Bouchard · EDM
1 BS · 1 TK
D. Vladar · PHI
3 GA · 24 SA

Data-Driven Pick · L. Draisaitl Under 1.5 pts

Strong play-115Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Flyers vs Oilers pick result · Nov 11, 2026

Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day