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New Jersey Devils at Winnipeg Jets

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2–4

DevilsJets

Final

Shot chart · 6 goals (G)

New Jersey Devils

13-6-0 · W2

80 PF · 61 PA

Final

Winnipeg Jets

8-8-3 · W6

66 PF · 72 PA

NJ 69%WPG 31%

At lock: projected NJ 3.76–2.48 WPG

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 9, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3079034815

Missed · off by 3

Most typical sim

NJ 4 – WPG 3

Final

NJ 2 – WPG 4

Winner: Devils (69%)
Spread: WPG +1.5 covers (54%)
Total: Under 6.5 (52%)
Score error (both teams)3

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
D. Samberg shots on goal	—	1	1	off 0
N. Pionk shots on goal	—	2	4	off 2

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: NJ vs WPG

The model

How this number was built

NJ 3.76–2.48 WPG · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals -0.20 vs +0.29 · adj. shots -3.5 vs +0.9 · back-to-back: WPG, NJ · model WPG 3.0–3.3 NJ
Home field
+0.2 goals to WPG
Record
WPG 8-8-3 · NJ 13-6-0
Market prior
Blended 77% toward NJ -142 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	T
NJ	0	2	0	2
WPG	2	0	2	4

How the goals went in

GOAL1st 7:540–1
Dawson Mercer Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (8)
GOAL1st 15:060–2
Kyle Connor Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (9), Mark Scheifele (15)
GOAL2nd 1:141–2
Jesper Bratt Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Arseny Gritsyuk (6), Jack Hughes (17)
GOAL2nd 1:582–2
Cody Glass Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Johnathan Kovacevic (2), Declan Chisholm (3)
GOAL3rd 11:582–3
Dawson Mercer Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (4), Viggo Björck (4)
GOAL3rd 19:022–4
Kyle Connor Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: none

Computer pick · Total

Under 6.5

54%

At lock NJ 3.76–2.48 WPG · 0.3 goals under 6.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop K. Connor · WPG
2 G
J. Boqvist · NJ
Forward
M. Barron · WPG
1 HT
D. Chisholm · NJ
Defenseman
T. Bauer · WPG
1 BS · 2 HT
J. Allen · NJ
3 GA · 24 SA

Data-Driven Pick · K. Connor anytime goal

+135Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Devils vs Jets pick result · Nov 10, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 6.5, with a 54% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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