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Detroit Red Wings at St. Louis Blues

Final · TNT

2–3

Red WingsBlues

Final

Shot chart · 5 goals (G)

Detroit Red Wings

7-9-3 · W1

57 PF · 64 PA

Final

St. Louis Blues

8-8-2 · L1

55 PF · 59 PA

DET 31%STL 69%

At lock: projected DET 2.25–3.50 STL

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 9, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3162922910

Called it

Most typical sim

DET 2 – STL 4

Final

DET 2 – STL 3

Winner: Blues (70%)
Spread: DET +1.5 covers (56%)
Total: Over 5.5 (51%)
Score error (both teams)1

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
M. Seider shots on goal	—	2	5	off 3
C. Parayko shots on goal	—	1	0	off -1
J. Faulk shots on goal	—	1	2	off 1
P. Broberg shots on goal	—	1	1	off 0

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: DET vs STL

The model

How this number was built

DET 2.25–3.50 STL · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals +0.10 vs -0.37 · adj. shots -3.4 vs -0.9 · back-to-back: STL, DET · model STL 3.1–2.8 DET
Home field
+0.2 goals to STL
Record
STL 8-8-2 · DET 7-9-3
Market prior
Blended 77% toward STL -142 / total 5.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	T
DET	1	0	1	2
STL	0	2	1	3

How the goals went in

GOAL1st 19:471–0
Andrew Copp Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Ben Chiarot (2), Lucas Raymond (11)
GOAL2nd 0:371–1
Pius Suter Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Alexey Toropchenko (3), Brandon Carlo (2)
GOAL2nd 2:341–2
Justin Barron Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (10), Jimmy Snuggerud (4)
GOAL3rd 15:581–3
Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Dylan Holloway (10), Robert Thomas (11)
GOAL3rd 18:462–3
Moritz Seider Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (12), Andrew Copp (5)

Computer pick · Total

Over 5.5

53%

At lock DET 2.25–3.50 STL · 0.3 goals over 5.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Prop P. Broberg · STL
1 S · under 1.5
M. Appleton · DET
1 BS · 4 HT
J. Berggren · STL
1 HT
B. Chiarot · DET
2 BS
J. Barron · STL
2 BS
J. Gibson · DET
3 GA · 33 SA

Data-Driven Pick · P. Broberg Under 1.5 SOG

Strong play-115Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Red Wings vs Blues pick result · Nov 10, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 5.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day