Washington Capitals at Ottawa Senators
Final/OT · ESPN+
3–2Shot chart · 5 goals (G)
At lock: projected WSH 2.56–3.75 OTT
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 9, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3129367672
- Winner: Senators (69%)
- Spread: WSH +1.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Under 6.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)2
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Roy shots on goal | — | 1 | 3 | off 2 |
| J. Sanderson shots on goal | — | 2 | 4 | off 2 |
| J. Chychrun shots on goal | — | 3 | 2 | off -1 |
| T. Chabot shots on goal | — | 2 | 1 | off -1 |
Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: WSH vs OTT
The model
How this number was built
WSH 2.56–3.75 OTT · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. goals +0.33 vs +0.07 · adj. shots -2.5 vs -3.6 · back-to-back: OTT, WSH · model OTT 3.3–3.0 WSH
- Home field+0.2 goals to OTT
- RecordOTT 11-6-2 · WSH 10-6-0
- Market priorBlended 78% toward WSH -118 / total 6.5
Line score
| P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| OTT | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
How the goals went in
GOAL1st 0:351–0Matt Roy Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (10), Aliaksei Protas (6)
GOAL2nd 11:051–1Ridly Greig Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Thomas Chabot (8), Michael Amadio (5)
- GOAL2nd 16:041–2
Hayden Hodgson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (9), Stephen Halliday (4)
- GOAL3rd 12:312–2
Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Hutson (6), Tom Wilson (4)
- GOALOT 1:143–2
Cole Hutson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (4), Dylan Strome (12)
At lock WSH 2.56–3.75 OTT · 0.2 goals under 6.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp T. Wilson · WSH
0 S · under 1.5A. Beauvillier · WSH
ForwardM. Amadio · OTT
ForwardJ. Chychrun · WSH
3 BS · 2 HTT. Chabot · OTT
1 BS · 1 TKL. Thompson · WSH
2 GA · 27 SA
Data-Driven Pick · T. Wilson Under 1.5 SOG
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Capitals vs Senators pick result · Nov 10, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 6.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day