Minnesota Wild at Montreal Canadiens
Final/OT · ESPN+
2–1Shot chart · 3 goals (G)
At lock: projected MIN 3.74–2.52 MTL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 9, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3146145291
- Winner: Wild (69%)
- Spread: MTL +1.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Under 6.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)4
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Dobson shots on goal | — | 2 | 3 | off 1 |
| K. Kaprizov shots on goal | — | 3 | 1 | off -2 |
| Q. Hughes shots on goal | — | 2 | 1 | off -1 |
| L. Hutson shots on goal | — | 1 | 6 | off 5 |
Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MIN vs MTL
The model
How this number was built
MIN 3.74–2.52 MTL · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. goals +0.49 vs +0.70 · adj. shots -2.7 vs -0.5 · back-to-back: MTL, MIN · model MTL 3.0–3.0 MIN
- Home field+0.2 goals to MTL
- RecordMTL 11-3-4 · MIN 13-3-4
- Market priorBlended 77% toward MIN -130 / total 6.5
Line score
| P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| MTL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
How the goals went in
GOAL3rd 2:531–0Bobby Brink Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none
GOAL3rd 18:221–1Nick Suzuki Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (6), Lane Hutson (15)
- GOALOT 0:212–1
Kirill Kaprizov Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (11), Quinn Hughes (21)
At lock MIN 3.74–2.52 MTL · 0.2 goals under 6.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp J. Slafkovsky · MTL
1 S · under 2.5M. Boldy · MIN
1 BS · 2 HTJ. Anderson · MTL
1 BS · 2 HTZ. Bogosian · MIN
1 BS · 1 HTA. Carrier · MTL
3 BS · 2 HTJ. Wallstedt · MIN
1 GA · 28 SA
Data-Driven Pick · J. Slafkovsky Under 2.5 SOG
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Wild vs Canadiens pick result · Nov 10, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 6.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day