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Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs

Final · ESPN+

6–3

AvalancheMaple Leafs

Final

Shot chart · 9 goals (G)

Colorado Avalanche

11-6-2 · W1

85 PF · 64 PA

Final

Toronto Maple Leafs

8-10-2 · L6

69 PF · 76 PA

COL 68%TOR 32%

At lock: projected COL 3.93–2.64 TOR

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 9, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3230033386

Called it

Most typical sim

COL 4 – TOR 3

Final

COL 6 – TOR 3

Winner: Avalanche (69%)
Spread: TOR +1.5 covers (55%)
Total: Over 6.5 (54%)
Score error (both teams)2

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
J. McCabe shots on goal	—	1	1	off 0
D. Raddysh shots on goal	—	2	2	off 0
C. Makar shots on goal	—	2	1	off -1
D. Toews shots on goal	—	2	2	off 0

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: COL vs TOR

The model

How this number was built

COL 3.93–2.64 TOR · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals -0.43 vs +0.71 · adj. shots -3.0 vs +2.9 · back-to-back: TOR, COL · model TOR 3.0–3.6 COL
Home field
+0.2 goals to TOR
Record
TOR 8-10-2 · COL 11-6-2
Market prior
Blended 63% toward COL -175 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	T
COL	2	1	3	6
TOR	1	1	1	3

How the goals went in

GOAL1st 3:330–1
Darren Raddysh Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (17), Jack Roslovic (11)
GOAL1st 16:091–1
Brock Nelson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: T.J. Hughes (6), Jaden Schwartz (6)
GOAL1st 17:262–1
Gabriel Landeskog Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Nicolas Roy (4), Cale Makar (17)
GOAL2nd 3:313–1
Devon Toews Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Logan O'Connor (2), Parker Kelly (5)
GOAL2nd 19:313–2
Easton Cowan Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Gavin McKenna (7), Nick Paul (5)
GOAL3rd 4:113–3
Jack Roslovic Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Easton Cowan (9), Darren Raddysh (11)
GOAL3rd 5:024–3
Gabriel Landeskog Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (10), Sam Malinski (8)
GOAL3rd 17:155–3
Artturi Lehkonen Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (18), Devon Toews (12)
GOAL3rd 17:306–3
Martin Necas Goal (10) Backhand, assists: none

Computer pick · Total

Over 6.5

51%

At lock COL 3.93–2.64 TOR · 0.1 goals over 6.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop N. MacKinnon · COL
0 G
T.J. Hughes · COL
1 HT
T. Blueger · TOR
2 HT
B. Burns · COL
Defenseman
O. Ekman-Larsson · TOR
2 HT
M. Blackwood · COL
3 GA · 31 SA

Data-Driven Pick · N. MacKinnon anytime goal

+145Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Avalanche vs Maple Leafs pick result · Nov 10, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 6.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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