Philadelphia Flyers at Vancouver Canucks
Final · ESPN+
3–1Shot chart · 4 goals (G)
At lock: projected PHI 3.72–2.51 VAN
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 8, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3196478148
- Winner: Flyers (69%)
- Spread: VAN +1.5 covers (56%)
- Total: Under 6.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)3
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Drysdale shots on goal | — | 1 | 0 | off -1 |
| F. Hronek shots on goal | — | 1 | 0 | off -1 |
| Z. Buium shots on goal | — | 1 | 1 | off 0 |
| T. Sanheim shots on goal | — | 1 | 1 | off 0 |
Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: PHI vs VAN
The model
How this number was built
PHI 3.72–2.51 VAN · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. goals -1.39 vs -0.15 · adj. shots -6.2 vs -2.4 · back-to-back: VAN, PHI · model VAN 2.6–3.5 PHI
- Home field+0.2 goals to VAN
- RecordVAN 3-16-1 · PHI 5-10-5
- Market priorBlended 63% toward PHI -142 / total 6.5
Line score
| P1 | P2 | P3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| VAN | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
How the goals went in
GOAL1st 2:031–0Michael Bunting Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (6), Nick Seeler (6)
- GOAL2nd 3:052–0
Travis Konecny Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (4), Christian Dvorak (7)
GOAL3rd 12:442–1Jonathan Lekkerimaki Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (10), Elias Pettersson (16)
- GOAL3rd 19:013–1
Travis Sanheim Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none
At lock PHI 3.72–2.51 VAN · 0.3 goals under 6.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp M. Michkov · PHI
0 GN. Acciari · PHI
1 BS · 3 HTA. Bains · VAN
1 HTO. Bonk · PHI
3 BSG. Brisebois · VAN
3 BSJ. Woll · PHI
1 GA · 19 SA
Data-Driven Pick · M. Michkov anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Flyers vs Canucks pick result · Nov 9, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 6.5, with a 54% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day