Philadelphia Flyers at Calgary Flames
Final/OT · ESPN+
3–4Shot chart · 7 goals (G)
At lock: projected PHI 3.46–2.24 CGY
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2908845864
- Winner: Flyers (70%)
- Spread: CGY +1.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Over 5.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)3
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Drysdale shots on goal | — | 1 | 4 | off 3 |
| T. Sanheim shots on goal | — | 1 | 0 | off -1 |
| S. Nemec shots on goal | — | 1 | 0 | off -1 |
| K. Bahl shots on goal | — | 1 | 0 | off -1 |
Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: PHI vs CGY
The model
How this number was built
PHI 3.46–2.24 CGY · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. goals -0.56 vs -0.15 · adj. shots -3.3 vs -2.3 · back-to-back: CGY, PHI · model CGY 2.8–3.0 PHI
- Home field+0.2 goals to CGY
- RecordCGY 8-9-1 · PHI 4-10-5
- Market priorBlended 77% toward PHI -122 / total 5.5
Line score
| P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| CGY | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
How the goals went in
GOAL1st 12:461–0Denver Barkey Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (5), Jamie Drysdale (8)
GOAL1st 15:261–1Zayne Parekh Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Yan Kuznetsov (4), Yegor Sharangovich (3)
- GOAL2nd 2:162–1
Noel Acciari Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Nick Seeler (5), Sean Couturier (6)
- GOAL2nd 5:592–2
Zach Whitecloud Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Aydar Suniev (2), Yegor Sharangovich (4)
- GOAL2nd 15:073–2
Owen Tippett Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (5), Oliver Bonk (6)
- GOAL3rd 8:273–3
Joel Farabee Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Martin Pospisil (4)
- GOALOT 4:083–4
Matt Coronato Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Matvei Gridin (6), Simon Nemec (7)
At lock PHI 3.46–2.24 CGY · 0.2 goals over 5.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp A. Suniev · CGY
1 S · under 1.5N. Acciari · PHI
1 BS · 2 HTM. Backlund · CGY
1 BSS. Benoit · PHI
1 BS · 3 HTJ. Hanley · CGY
1 BS · 1 HTD. Vladar · PHI
4 GA · 26 SA
Data-Driven Pick · A. Suniev Under 1.5 SOG
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Flyers vs Flames pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 5.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day