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Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets

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3–4

LightningJets

Final

Shot chart · 7 goals (G)

Tampa Bay Lightning

11-4-2 · L1

74 PF · 59 PA

Final

Winnipeg Jets

7-8-3 · W6

66 PF · 72 PA

TB 67%WPG 33%

At lock: projected TB 3.77–2.57 WPG

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2892068245

Missed · off by 2

Most typical sim

TB 4 – WPG 3

Final

TB 3 – WPG 4

Winner: Lightning (68%)
Spread: WPG +1.5 covers (56%)
Total: Under 6.5 (51%)
Score error (both teams)2

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
J. Morrissey shots on goal	—	2	0	off -2
N. Pionk shots on goal	—	2	1	off -1

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: TB vs WPG

The model

How this number was built

TB 3.77–2.57 WPG · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals -0.20 vs +0.58 · adj. shots -3.3 vs -1.2 · back-to-back: WPG, TB · model WPG 3.0–3.4 TB
Home field
+0.2 goals to WPG
Record
WPG 7-8-3 · TB 11-4-2
Market prior
Blended 78% toward TB -162 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	T
TB	0	0	3	3
WPG	0	2	2	4

How the goals went in

GOAL2nd 1:530–1
Cole Perfetti Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (14), Haydn Fleury (3)
GOAL2nd 12:380–2
Morgan Barron Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Neal Pionk (8), Viggo Björck (2)
GOAL3rd 8:100–3
Brayden Yager Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Viggo Björck (3), Alex Iafallo (3)
GOAL3rd 10:221–3
Brandon Hagel Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (6)
GOAL3rd 14:012–3
Pontus Holmberg Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Cernak (6), Zemgus Girgensons (3)
GOAL3rd 14:273–3
Pontus Holmberg Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Erik Cernak (7), Ilya Mikheyev (3)
GOAL3rd 19:583–4
Mark Scheifele Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (7), Gabriel Vilardi (8)

Computer pick · Total

Under 6.5

52%

At lock TB 3.77–2.57 WPG · 0.2 goals under 6.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Prop N. Kucherov · TB
1 S · under 2.5
A. Cirelli · TB
1 HT · 1 TK
M. Barron · WPG
1 BS · 2 HT
J. Carlson · TB
1 HT
T. Bauer · WPG
1 BS · 1 HT
A. Vasilevskiy · TB
4 GA · 26 SA

Data-Driven Pick · N. Kucherov Under 2.5 SOG

Strong play+100Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Lightning vs Jets pick result · Nov 8, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 6.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day