NHLFinalScotiabank Arena

New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs

Final · NHL Net

4–0

DevilsMaple Leafs

Final

Shot chart · 4 goals (G)

New Jersey Devils

13-5-0 · W2

80 PF · 61 PA

Final

Toronto Maple Leafs

8-9-2 · L6

69 PF · 76 PA

NJ 67%TOR 33%

At lock: projected NJ 3.78–2.59 TOR

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2875290626

Called it

Most typical sim

NJ 4 – TOR 3

Final

NJ 4 – TOR 0

Winner: Devils (69%)
Spread: TOR +1.5 covers (56%)
Total: Under 6.5 (50%)
Score error (both teams)3

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
J. McCabe shots on goal	—	1	1	off 0
D. Raddysh shots on goal	—	2	2	off 0

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: NJ vs TOR

The model

How this number was built

NJ 3.78–2.59 TOR · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals -0.43 vs +0.29 · adj. shots -4.0 vs +2.9 · back-to-back: TOR, NJ · model TOR 2.9–3.6 NJ
Home field
+0.2 goals to TOR
Record
TOR 8-9-2 · NJ 13-5-0
Market prior
Blended 77% toward NJ -162 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	T
NJ	0	2	2	4
TOR	0	0	0	0

How the goals went in

GOAL2nd 8:281–0
Timo Meier Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Declan Chisholm (2), Nico Hischier (5)
GOAL2nd 12:442–0
Timo Meier Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jack Hughes (15), Jesper Bratt (14)
GOAL3rd 9:493–0
Nico Hischier Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (16), Jesper Bratt (15)
GOAL3rd 17:234–0
Connor Brown Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Cody Glass (2)

Computer pick · Total

Under 6.5

53%

At lock NJ 3.78–2.59 TOR · 0.1 goals under 6.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop W. Nylander · TOR
3 S · over 2.5
J. Boqvist · NJ
2 HT
T. Blueger · TOR
Forward
D. Chisholm · NJ
Defenseman
O. Ekman-Larsson · TOR
1 BS · 4 HT
C. Hellebuyck · NJ
23 SA

Data-Driven Pick · W. Nylander Under 2.5 SOG

Strong play-120Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Devils vs Maple Leafs pick result · Nov 8, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 6.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day