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Florida Panthers at Boston Bruins

Final · NHL Net

1–4

PanthersBruins

Final

Shot chart · 5 goals (G)

Florida Panthers

9-7-2 · W3

69 PF · 61 PA

Final

Boston Bruins

13-4-1 · L2

72 PF · 52 PA

FLA 32%BOS 68%

At lock: projected FLA 2.52–3.75 BOS

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2841735388

Called it

Most typical sim

FLA 3 – BOS 4

Final

FLA 1 – BOS 4

Winner: Bruins (69%)
Spread: FLA +1.5 covers (56%)
Total: Under 6.5 (53%)
Score error (both teams)2

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
S. Jones shots on goal	—	2	3	off 1
G. Forsling shots on goal	—	1	1	off 0
H. Lindholm shots on goal	—	1	0	off -1
C. McAvoy shots on goal	—	1	2	off 1

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: FLA vs BOS

The model

How this number was built

FLA 2.52–3.75 BOS · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals +0.65 vs -0.03 · adj. shots -2.7 vs -0.6 · back-to-back: BOS, FLA · model BOS 3.3–2.9 FLA
Home field
+0.2 goals to BOS
Record
BOS 13-4-1 · FLA 9-7-2
Market prior
Blended 77% toward BOS -155 / total 5.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	T
FLA	1	0	0	1
BOS	3	0	1	4

How the goals went in

GOAL1st 4:500–1
Elias Lindholm Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (5), Charlie McAvoy (8)
GOAL1st 6:110–2
Michael Eyssimont Goal (1) Poke, assists: Fraser Minten (6)
GOAL1st 15:590–3
Morgan Geekie Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (15), Pavel Zacha (8)
GOAL1st 18:051–3
Carter Verhaeghe Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (10), Matthew Tkachuk (22)
GOAL3rd 0:581–4
JJ Peterka Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (16), Pavel Zacha (9)

Computer pick · Total

Under 6.5

53%

At lock FLA 2.52–3.75 BOS · 0.2 goals under 6.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop S. Reinhart · FLA
3 S · over 2.5
S. Bennett · FLA
5 HT · 1 TK
M. Eyssimont · BOS
Forward
U. Balinskis · FLA
1 HT
W. Borgen · BOS
1 BS · 1 HT
J. Markstrom · FLA
4 GA · 37 SA

Data-Driven Pick · S. Reinhart Under 2.5 SOG

Strong play-110Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Panthers vs Bruins pick result · Nov 8, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 6.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day