Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild
Final/OT · ESPN+
4–3Shot chart · 7 goals (G)
At lock: projected TB 3.71–2.58 MIN
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2774624912
- Winner: Lightning (68%)
- Spread: MIN +1.5 covers (57%)
- Total: Under 6.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)0
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kaprizov shots on goal | — | 3 | 5 | off 2 |
| Q. Hughes shots on goal | — | 2 | 1 | off -1 |
Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: TB vs MIN
The model
How this number was built
TB 3.71–2.58 MIN · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. goals +0.70 vs +0.58 · adj. shots -2.3 vs -1.6 · back-to-back: MIN, TB · model MIN 3.1–3.1 TB
- Home field+0.2 goals to MIN
- RecordMIN 12-3-4 · TB 11-3-2
- Market priorBlended 78% toward TB -142 / total 6.5
Line score
| P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| MIN | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
How the goals went in
GOAL1st 0:550–1Blake Coleman Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Olli Maatta (4), Quinn Hughes (20)
- GOAL1st 2:580–2
Maxim Shabanov Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (11), Kirill Kaprizov (15)
GOAL2nd 16:341–2Jake Guentzel Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Charle-Edouard D'Astous (7), Nikita Kucherov (17)
- GOAL3rd 6:491–3
Maxim Shabanov Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none
- GOAL3rd 13:442–3
Jake Guentzel Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Brayden Point (10), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (8)
- GOAL3rd 16:293–3
Charle-Edouard D'Astous Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: John Carlson (4), Brayden Point (11)
- GOALOT 3:234–3
Nikita Kucherov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (8), John Carlson (5)
At lock TB 3.71–2.58 MIN · 0.2 goals under 6.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp K. Kaprizov · MIN
0 GA. Cirelli · TB
1 HTM. Boldy · MIN
1 HT · 1 TKJ. Carlson · TB
1 HTZ. Bogosian · MIN
2 BS · 1 HTD. Hildeby · TB
3 GA · 22 SA
Data-Driven Pick · K. Kaprizov anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Lightning vs Wild pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 6.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day