Utah Mammoth at Ottawa Senators
Final · NHL Net
2–4Shot chart · 6 goals (G)
At lock: projected UTA 3.82–2.66 OTT
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2908992959
- Winner: Mammoth (68%)
- Spread: OTT +1.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Over 6.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)3
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Sergachev shots on goal | — | 2 | 5 | off 3 |
| J. Sanderson shots on goal | — | 2 | 1 | off -1 |
| M. Weegar shots on goal | — | 2 | 2 | off 0 |
| T. Chabot shots on goal | — | 1 | 2 | off 1 |
Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: UTA vs OTT
The model
How this number was built
UTA 3.82–2.66 OTT · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. goals +0.33 vs +0.00 · adj. shots -3.7 vs -3.0 · back-to-back: OTT, UTA · model OTT 3.2–3.0 UTA
- Home field+0.2 goals to OTT
- RecordOTT 11-6-1 · UTA 10-7-1
- Market priorBlended 77% toward UTAH -120 / total 6.5
Line score
| P1 | P2 | P3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| OTT | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
How the goals went in
GOAL1st 5:270–1Fabian Zetterlund Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Stephen Halliday (3), Philip Tomasino (3)
GOAL1st 9:571–1Clayton Keller Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Anders Lee (5)
- GOAL3rd 6:291–2
Michael Amadio Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (8), Tyler Kleven (2)
- GOAL3rd 9:532–2
Barrett Hayton Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Clayton Keller (19), MacKenzie Weegar (3)
- GOAL3rd 17:422–3
Nick Cousins Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Chabot (7), Shane Pinto (7)
- GOAL3rd 19:442–4
Shane Pinto Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (14), Michael Amadio (4)
At lock UTA 3.82–2.66 OTT · 0.02 goals under 6.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp T. Stutzle · OTT
0 GM. Carcone · UTA
2 HTM. Amadio · OTT
2 HT · 1 TKN. DeSimone · UTA
DefensemanT. Chabot · OTT
1 HTK. Vejmelka · UTA
3 GA · 20 SA
Data-Driven Pick · T. Stutzle anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Mammoth vs Senators pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 6.5, with a 50% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day