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Florida Panthers at Washington Capitals

Final · ESPN+

3–4

PanthersCapitals

Final

Shot chart · 7 goals (G)

Florida Panthers

9-6-2 · W3

69 PF · 61 PA

Final

Washington Capitals

9-6-0 · L2

62 PF · 65 PA

FLA 33%WSH 67%

At lock: projected FLA 2.59–3.78 WSH

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2841882483

Exact score

Most typical sim

FLA 3 – WSH 4

Final

FLA 3 – WSH 4

Winner: Capitals (69%)
Spread: FLA +1.5 covers (55%)
Total: Under 6.5 (51%)
Score error (both teams)0

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
M. Roy shots on goal	—	1	1	off 0
S. Jones shots on goal	—	2	1	off -1
J. Chychrun shots on goal	—	3	2	off -1
G. Forsling shots on goal	—	1	1	off 0

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: FLA vs WSH

The model

How this number was built

FLA 2.59–3.78 WSH · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals +0.07 vs -0.03 · adj. shots -2.6 vs -1.5 · back-to-back: WSH, FLA · model WSH 3.3–3.1 FLA
Home field
+0.2 goals to WSH
Record
WSH 9-6-0 · FLA 9-6-2
Market prior
Blended 78% toward WSH -130 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	T
FLA	2	0	1	3
WSH	1	2	1	4

How the goals went in

GOAL1st 2:210–1
Jack St. Ivany Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none
GOAL1st 3:131–1
Brady Tkachuk Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (19)
GOAL1st 10:002–1
Brady Tkachuk Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (20), Seth Jones (17)
GOAL2nd 4:392–2
Alex Tuch Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: none
GOAL2nd 14:552–3
Aliaksei Protas Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (7), Ryan Leonard (6)
GOAL3rd 4:422–4
Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (5)
GOAL3rd 19:133–4
Sam Bennett Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (21), Sam Reinhart (8)

Computer pick · Total

Under 6.5

52%

At lock FLA 2.59–3.78 WSH · 0.1 goals under 6.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Prop C. Hutson · WSH
2 S · over 1.5
S. Bennett · FLA
1 BS · 2 HT
A. Beauvillier · WSH
1 HT
U. Balinskis · FLA
Defenseman
J. Chychrun · WSH
2 BS
A. Schmid · FLA
4 GA · 31 SA

Data-Driven Pick · C. Hutson Under 1.5 SOG

Strong play-110Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Panthers vs Capitals pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 6.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day