Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames
Final · ESPN+
5–3Shot chart · 8 goals (G)
At lock: projected ANA 2.60–3.78 CGY
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2858660102
- Winner: Flames (69%)
- Spread: ANA +1.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Under 6.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)3
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Luneau shots on goal | — | 1 | 3 | off 2 |
| J. LaCombe shots on goal | — | 1 | 2 | off 1 |
| S. Nemec shots on goal | — | 1 | 2 | off 1 |
| K. Bahl shots on goal | — | 1 | 0 | off -1 |
Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: ANA vs CGY
The model
How this number was built
ANA 2.60–3.78 CGY · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. goals -0.56 vs -0.14 · adj. shots -2.5 vs -0.4 · back-to-back: CGY, ANA · model CGY 3.2–3.2 ANA
- Home field+0.2 goals to CGY
- RecordCGY 7-9-1 · ANA 9-7-1
- Market priorBlended 78% toward CGY -148 / total 6.5
Line score
| P1 | P2 | P3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| CGY | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
How the goals went in
GOAL1st 2:230–1William Stromgren Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Zayne Parekh (5), Yan Kuznetsov (3)
GOAL1st 2:501–1Jeff Malott Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none
- GOAL1st 16:291–2
Joel Hanley Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (7), Simon Nemec (6)
- GOAL1st 19:021–3
Joel Farabee Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Zayne Parekh (6), Morgan Frost (8)
- GOAL2nd 12:022–3
Tristan Luneau Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (18), Leo Carlsson (20)
- GOAL3rd 0:553–3
Leo Carlsson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (10), Mikael Granlund (11)
- GOAL3rd 18:264–3
Cutter Gauthier Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (12), Beckett Sennecke (11)
- GOAL3rd 19:465–3
Nikita Nesterenko Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none
At lock ANA 2.60–3.78 CGY · 0.1 goals under 6.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp R. Strome · CGY
2 S · over 1.5L. Carlsson · ANA
ForwardM. Backlund · CGY
1 BS · 1 HTD. Helleson · ANA
2 HT · 1 TKJ. Hanley · CGY
1 BS · 1 HTL. Dostal · ANA
3 GA · 11 SA
Data-Driven Pick · R. Strome Under 1.5 SOG
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Ducks vs Flames pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 6.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day