Anaheim Ducks at Edmonton Oilers
Final · ESPN+
5–4Shot chart · 9 goals (G)
At lock: projected ANA 2.73–4.05 EDM
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 4, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2892362435
- Winner: Oilers (70%)
- Spread: ANA +1.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 6.5 (56%)
- Score error (both teams)2
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Luneau shots on goal | — | 1 | 1 | off 0 |
| J. LaCombe shots on goal | — | 1 | 0 | off -1 |
| C. McDavid shots on goal | — | 3 | 3 | off 0 |
| E. Bouchard shots on goal | — | 2 | 3 | off 1 |
Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: ANA vs EDM
The model
How this number was built
ANA 2.73–4.05 EDM · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. goals +0.54 vs -0.14 · adj. shots -2.5 vs -2.8 · back-to-back: EDM, ANA · model EDM 3.6–3.0 ANA
- Home field+0.2 goals to EDM
- RecordEDM 11-3-3 · ANA 8-7-1
- Market priorBlended 78% toward EDM -192 / total 6.5
Line score
| P1 | P2 | P3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| EDM | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
How the goals went in
GOAL1st 9:261–0Cutter Gauthier Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (17), Leo Carlsson (18)
GOAL1st 19:411–1Evan Bouchard Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (32), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (6)
- GOAL2nd 2:341–2
Connor McDavid Goal (10) Batted, assists: Leon Draisaitl (17), Mattias Ekholm (5)
- GOAL2nd 3:372–2
Pavel Mintyukov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (9), Drew Helleson (1)
- GOAL2nd 6:153–2
Pavel Mintyukov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Judd Caulfield (5), Mikael Granlund (10)
- GOAL2nd 19:224–2
Beckett Sennecke Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Tristan Luneau (9), Pavel Mintyukov (4)
- GOAL3rd 1:425–2
Beckett Sennecke Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (19), Cutter Gauthier (6)
- GOAL3rd 16:245–3
Kasperi Kapanen Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (7), Connor McDavid (33)
- GOAL3rd 19:155–4
Leon Draisaitl Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (34), Evan Bouchard (20)
At lock ANA 2.73–4.05 EDM · 0.3 goals over 6.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp C. McDavid · EDM
1 GL. Carlsson · ANA
ForwardC. Dach · EDM
ForwardD. Helleson · ANA
1 BS · 3 HTE. Bouchard · EDM
1 TKL. Brossoit · ANA
4 GA · 27 SA
Data-Driven Pick · C. McDavid anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Ducks vs Oilers pick result · Nov 5, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 6.5, with a 56% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day