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Vancouver Canucks at Winnipeg Jets

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2–6

CanucksJets

Final

Shot chart · 8 goals (G)

Vancouver Canucks

3-14-1 · L7

57 PF · 95 PA

Final

Winnipeg Jets

6-8-3 · W6

66 PF · 72 PA

VAN 32%WPG 68%

At lock: projected VAN 2.56–3.83 WPG

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 4, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2875584816

Called it

Most typical sim

VAN 3 – WPG 4

Final

VAN 2 – WPG 6

Winner: Jets (69%)
Spread: VAN +1.5 covers (55%)
Total: Under 6.5 (50%)
Score error (both teams)3

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
D. Samberg shots on goal	—	1	1	off 0
N. Pionk shots on goal	—	2	3	off 1
F. Hronek shots on goal	—	1	1	off 0
Z. Buium shots on goal	—	1	2	off 1

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: VAN vs WPG

The model

How this number was built

VAN 2.56–3.83 WPG · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals -0.20 vs -1.39 · adj. shots -0.5 vs -5.1 · back-to-back: WPG, VAN · model WPG 3.9–2.5 VAN
Home field
+0.2 goals to WPG
Record
WPG 6-8-3 · VAN 3-14-1
Market prior
Blended 64% toward WPG -218 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	T
VAN	1	0	1	2
WPG	3	2	1	6

How the goals went in

GOAL1st 3:490–1
Alex Iafallo Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Haydn Fleury (2), Dawson Mercer (7)
GOAL1st 4:030–2
Cole Koepke Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Barron (4)
GOAL1st 6:511–2
Liam Ohgren Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (4), Jonathan Lekkerimaki (8)
GOAL1st 14:041–3
Dawson Mercer Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (6), Dylan DeMelo (6)
GOAL2nd 6:521–4
Neal Pionk Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (5), Gabriel Vilardi (7)
GOAL2nd 11:361–5
Mark Scheifele Goal (3) Poke, assists: Kyle Connor (6), Viggo Björck (1)
GOAL3rd 11:321–6
Mario Ferraro Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (13), Dylan DeMelo (7)
GOAL3rd 15:092–6
Brock Boeser Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Jacob Quillan (1)

Computer pick · Total

Under 6.5

52%

At lock VAN 2.56–3.83 WPG · 0.1 goals under 6.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Prop C. Perfetti · WPG
2 S · under 2.5
B. Boeser · VAN
1 BS · 1 HT
M. Barron · WPG
1 BS · 2 HT
G. Brisebois · VAN
1 HT
T. Bauer · WPG
1 BS · 3 HT
L. Merilainen · VAN
6 GA · 29 SA

Data-Driven Pick · C. Perfetti Under 2.5 SOG

Strong play-110Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Canucks vs Jets pick result · Nov 5, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 6.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day