Boston Bruins at Pittsburgh Penguins
Final · ESPN+
6–2Shot chart · 8 goals (G)
At lock: projected BOS 3.79–2.65 PIT
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 4, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2909140054
- Winner: Bruins (68%)
- Spread: PIT +1.5 covers (56%)
- Total: Over 6.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)3
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Karlsson shots on goal | — | 2 | 0 | off -2 |
| H. Lindholm shots on goal | — | 1 | 1 | off 0 |
| C. McAvoy shots on goal | — | 1 | 1 | off 0 |
Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: BOS vs PIT
The model
How this number was built
BOS 3.79–2.65 PIT · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. goals -0.11 vs +0.65 · adj. shots -0.8 vs -2.3 · back-to-back: PIT, BOS · model PIT 3.1–3.2 BOS
- Home field+0.2 goals to PIT
- RecordPIT 5-9-2 · BOS 12-4-1
- Market priorBlended 78% toward BOS +102 / total 6.5
Line score
| P1 | P2 | P3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| PIT | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
How the goals went in
GOAL1st 9:040–1Justin Brazeau Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Hendrix Lapierre (5), Kaedan Korczak (9)
GOAL1st 12:071–1Pavel Zacha Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (13), JJ Peterka (8)
- GOAL1st 15:042–1
Mark Kastelic Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Frederic Brunet (4), Tanner Jeannot (4)
- GOAL1st 18:573–1
Elias Lindholm Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none
- GOAL2nd 7:573–2
Nick Robertson Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Kaedan Korczak (10), Blake Lizotte (5)
- GOAL2nd 14:244–2
Pavel Zacha Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (9), David Pastrnak (14)
- GOAL2nd 16:575–2
Morgan Geekie Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Hampus Lindholm (4)
- GOAL3rd 8:396–2
Fraser Minten Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (9)
At lock BOS 3.79–2.65 PIT · 0.1 goals under 6.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp D. Pastrnak · BOS
0 GM. Geekie · BOS
1 BSJ. Brazeau · PIT
1 BSW. Borgen · BOS
4 BS · 3 HTD. Carlile · PIT
2 BS · 1 TKM. DiPietro · BOS
2 GA · 19 SA
Data-Driven Pick · D. Pastrnak anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Bruins vs Penguins pick result · Nov 5, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 6.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day