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Carolina Hurricanes at New York Islanders

Final · Disney+

5–3

HurricanesIslanders

Final

Shot chart · 8 goals (G)

Carolina Hurricanes

13-3-2 · W4

87 PF · 47 PA

Final

New York Islanders

7-6-2 · W2

60 PF · 56 PA

CAR 70%NYI 30%

At lock: projected CAR 3.55–2.23 NYI

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 4, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2942695292

Called it

Most typical sim

CAR 4 – NYI 2

Final

CAR 5 – NYI 3

Winner: Hurricanes (71%)
Spread: NYI +1.5 covers (55%)
Total: Over 5.5 (51%)
Score error (both teams)2

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
S. Walker shots on goal	—	2	2	off 0
M. Schaefer shots on goal	—	3	2	off -1
B. Horvat shots on goal	—	3	3	off 0
K. Miller shots on goal	—	1	2	off 1

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: CAR vs NYI

The model

How this number was built

CAR 3.55–2.23 NYI · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals -0.23 vs +1.01 · adj. shots -6.1 vs +2.0 · back-to-back: NYI, CAR · model NYI 2.4–3.7 CAR
Home field
+0.2 goals to NYI
Record
NYI 7-6-2 · CAR 13-3-2
Market prior
Blended 64% toward CAR -205 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	T
CAR	2	1	2	5
NYI	0	3	0	3

How the goals went in

GOAL1st 0:571–0
Logan Stankoven Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (14), K'Andre Miller (4)
GOAL1st 3:202–0
Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Jordan Martinook (6), Jalen Chatfield (4)
GOAL2nd 3:402–1
Mitchell Chaffee Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Matthew Schaefer (11), Casey Cizikas (2)
GOAL2nd 5:442–2
Brayden Schenn Goal (5) Wrap-around, assists: Victor Eklund (3), Matthew Kessel (2)
GOAL2nd 6:443–2
Andrei Svechnikov Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Sebastian Aho (13), William Carrier (9)
GOAL2nd 17:133–3
Victor Eklund Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (6), Emil Heineman (5)
GOAL3rd 14:524–3
William Carrier Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (9), Sebastian Aho (14)
GOAL3rd 19:095–3
Jalen Chatfield Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none

Computer pick · Total

Over 5.5

53%

At lock CAR 3.55–2.23 NYI · 0.3 goals over 5.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop S. Aho · CAR
0 G
M. Chaffee · NYI
3 HT
J. Chatfield · CAR
1 BS · 1 TK
T. DeAngelo · NYI
2 HT
B. Bussi · CAR
3 GA · 27 SA
S. Varlamov · NYI
4 GA · 38 SA

Data-Driven Pick · S. Aho anytime goal

+180Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Hurricanes vs Islanders pick result · Nov 5, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 5.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day