St. Louis Blues at New Jersey Devils
Final/OT · ESPN+
4–5Shot chart · 9 goals (G)
At lock: projected STL 2.29–3.58 NJ
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 4, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2993028149
- Winner: Devils (71%)
- Spread: STL +1.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 5.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)3
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Fowler shots on goal | — | 1 | 0 | off -1 |
| P. Broberg shots on goal | — | 1 | 3 | off 2 |
Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: STL vs NJ
The model
How this number was built
STL 2.29–3.58 NJ · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. goals +0.29 vs +0.10 · adj. shots +1.3 vs -4.2 · back-to-back: NJ, STL · model NJ 3.3–2.8 STL
- Home field+0.2 goals to NJ
- RecordNJ 11-5-0 · STL 7-7-2
- Market priorBlended 78% toward NJ -238 / total 5.5
Line score
| P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| NJ | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
How the goals went in
GOAL1st 7:340–1Luke Hughes Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Pesce (5), Jack Hughes (12)
- GOAL2nd 12:020–2
Anthony Mantha Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (13), Jesper Bratt (12)
GOAL2nd 16:041–2Robert Thomas Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (5), Philip Broberg (8)
- GOAL2nd 18:001–3
Jesper Boqvist Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (4), Anthony Mantha (4)
- GOAL2nd 18:191–4
Anthony Mantha Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Evan Rodrigues (4), Brett Pesce (6)
- GOAL3rd 11:462–4
Mason McTavish Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Barron (7), Colton Parayko (5)
- GOAL3rd 14:363–4
Philip Broberg Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (5), Adam Jiricek (2)
- GOAL3rd 14:544–4
Dalibor Dvorsky Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Connor McMichael (7)
- GOALOT 1:264–5
Jesper Bratt Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (7)
At lock STL 2.29–3.58 NJ · 0.4 goals over 5.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp J. Hughes · NJ
6 S · over 3.5P. Buchnevich · STL
2 BS · 1 TKJ. Boqvist · NJ
1 HTJ. Barron · STL
1 HTD. Chisholm · NJ
1 TKJ. Binnington · STL
5 GA · 37 SA
Data-Driven Pick · J. Hughes Under 3.5 SOG
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Blues vs Devils pick result · Nov 5, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 5.5, with a 55% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day