Calgary Flames at Seattle Kraken
Final/OT · ESPN+
1–2Shot chart · 3 goals (G)
At lock: projected CGY 2.53–3.77 SEA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 3, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3160951434
- Winner: Kraken (70%)
- Spread: CGY +1.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Under 6.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)4
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Montour shots on goal | — | 2 | 1 | off -1 |
| S. Nemec shots on goal | — | 1 | 4 | off 3 |
| V. Dunn shots on goal | — | 2 | 4 | off 2 |
| K. Bahl shots on goal | — | 1 | 1 | off 0 |
Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: CGY vs SEA
The model
How this number was built
CGY 2.53–3.77 SEA · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. goals -0.44 vs -0.56 · adj. shots -2.1 vs -1.0 · back-to-back: SEA, CGY · model SEA 3.2–3.0 CGY
- Home field+0.2 goals to SEA
- RecordSEA 9-5-1 · CGY 7-8-1
- Market priorBlended 78% toward SEA -135 / total 6.5
Line score
| P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| SEA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
How the goals went in
GOAL1st 12:451–0Yegor Sharangovich Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Zach Whitecloud (2), Morgan Frost (6)
GOAL2nd 13:091–1Berkly Catton Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (5), Kaapo Kakko (10)
- GOALOT 0:551–2
Matty Beniers Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (8)
At lock CGY 2.53–3.77 SEA · 0.2 goals under 6.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp J. Eberle · SEA
0 GM. Backlund · CGY
ForwardM. Beniers · SEA
ForwardK. Bahl · CGY
1 BS · 2 HTV. Dunn · SEA
1 BS · 1 TKD. Wolf · CGY
2 GA · 29 SA
Data-Driven Pick · J. Eberle anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Flames vs Kraken pick result · Nov 4, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 6.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day