Chicago Blackhawks at Florida Panthers
Final · TNT
3–5Shot chart · 8 goals (G)
At lock: projected CHI 2.24–3.68 FLA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 3, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3127396196
- Winner: Panthers (74%)
- Spread: CHI +1.5 covers (51%)
- Total: Over 5.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)2
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vlasic shots on goal | — | 1 | 0 | off -1 |
| S. Jones shots on goal | — | 2 | 4 | off 2 |
| C. Bedard shots on goal | — | 3 | 4 | off 1 |
| G. Forsling shots on goal | — | 1 | 1 | off 0 |
Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: CHI vs FLA
The model
How this number was built
CHI 2.24–3.68 FLA · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. goals -0.03 vs -1.09 · adj. shots +0.1 vs -5.1 · back-to-back: FLA, CHI · model FLA 3.8–2.5 CHI
- Home field+0.2 goals to FLA
- RecordFLA 9-5-2 · CHI 4-11-1
- Market priorBlended 64% toward FLA -258 / total 5.5
Line score
| P1 | P2 | P3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| FLA | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
How the goals went in
GOAL1st 4:430–1Sandis Vilmanis Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (6), Carter Verhaeghe (6)
- GOAL1st 12:290–2
Carter Verhaeghe Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (9), Matthew Tkachuk (18)
- GOAL2nd 13:200–3
Seth Jones Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Sandis Vilmanis (3), Sam Reinhart (7)
GOAL2nd 16:481–3Roman Kantserov Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ethan Del Mastro (1), Connor Bedard (7)
- GOAL3rd 9:312–3
Frank Nazar Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Cole Smith (2), Ethan Del Mastro (2)
- GOAL3rd 11:012–4
Sandis Vilmanis Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: none
- GOAL3rd 16:093–4
Frank Nazar Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Rinzel (3), Connor Bedard (8)
- GOAL3rd 18:333–5
Sam Reinhart Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Sandis Vilmanis (4)
At lock CHI 2.24–3.68 FLA · FLA by 1.4 goals vs CHI +1.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp S. Reinhart · FLA
1 GC. Bedard · CHI
2 HTS. Bennett · FLA
1 BSI. Cole · CHI
4 BS · 1 HTU. Balinskis · FLA
2 HTS. Knight · CHI
4 GA · 28 SA
Data-Driven Pick · S. Reinhart anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Blackhawks vs Panthers pick result · Nov 4, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is CHI +1.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day