NHLFinalKeyBank Center

Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres

Final · ESPN+

2–1

SenatorsSabres

Final

Shot chart · 3 goals (G)

Ottawa Senators

10-6-1 · W2

68 PF · 61 PA

Final

Buffalo Sabres

7-5-3 · L4

55 PF · 70 PA

OTT 33%BUF 67%

At lock: projected OTT 2.69–3.88 BUF

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 3, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3144173815

Missed · off by 4

Most typical sim

OTT 3 – BUF 4

Final

OTT 2 – BUF 1

Winner: Sabres (69%)
Spread: OTT +1.5 covers (55%)
Total: Over 6.5 (53%)
Score error (both teams)4

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
J. Sanderson shots on goal	—	2	1	off -1
O. Power shots on goal	—	1	1	off 0
T. Chabot shots on goal	—	2	1	off -1
R. Dahlin shots on goal	—	3	1	off -2

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: OTT vs BUF

The model

How this number was built

OTT 2.69–3.88 BUF · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals -0.00 vs +0.33 · adj. shots -2.9 vs -2.4 · back-to-back: BUF, OTT · model BUF 3.0–3.1 OTT
Home field
+0.2 goals to BUF
Record
BUF 7-5-3 · OTT 10-6-1
Market prior
Blended 78% toward BUF -130 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	T
OTT	0	0	2	2
BUF	0	1	0	1

How the goals went in

GOAL2nd 14:000–1
Peyton Krebs Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Tage Thompson (8), Zach Benson (12)
GOAL3rd 11:331–1
Shane Pinto Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Philip Tomasino (2), Thomas Chabot (6)
GOAL3rd 16:512–1
Michael Amadio Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (13), Fabian Zetterlund (6)

Computer pick · Total

Over 6.5

52%

At lock OTT 2.69–3.88 BUF · 0.1 goals over 6.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Prop T. Thompson · BUF
0 G
M. Amadio · OTT
3 HT
Z. Benson · BUF
1 BS · 1 HT
T. Chabot · OTT
4 BS
L. Crevier · BUF
Defenseman
S. Ersson · OTT
1 GA · 25 SA

Data-Driven Pick · T. Thompson anytime goal

+130Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Senators vs Sabres pick result · Nov 4, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 6.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day