Anaheim Ducks at Vancouver Canucks
Final · ESPN+
5–4Shot chart · 9 goals (G)
At lock: projected ANA 3.99–2.74 VAN
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3093840958
- Winner: Ducks (69%)
- Spread: VAN +1.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Over 6.5 (56%)
- Score error (both teams)2
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Luneau shots on goal | — | 1 | 2 | off 1 |
| J. LaCombe shots on goal | — | 1 | 0 | off -1 |
| F. Hronek shots on goal | — | 1 | 1 | off 0 |
| Z. Buium shots on goal | — | 1 | 2 | off 1 |
Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: ANA vs VAN
The model
How this number was built
ANA 3.99–2.74 VAN · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. goals -1.39 vs -0.14 · adj. shots -5.3 vs -0.6 · back-to-back: VAN, ANA · model VAN 3.0–3.7 ANA
- Home field+0.2 goals to VAN
- RecordVAN 3-13-1 · ANA 7-7-1
- Market priorBlended 64% toward ANA -192 / total 6.5
Line score
| P1 | P2 | P3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| VAN | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
How the goals went in
GOAL1st 4:041–0Mikael Granlund Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (5), Jackson LaCombe (15)
GOAL1st 6:041–1Liam Ohgren Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (3), Paul Cotter (4)
- GOAL1st 17:072–1
Cutter Gauthier Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (6), Jackson LaCombe (16)
- GOAL2nd 2:583–1
Leo Carlsson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (3), Mikael Granlund (8)
- GOAL2nd 8:173–2
Linus Karlsson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew O'Connor (3)
- GOAL2nd 18:254–2
Cutter Gauthier Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (7), Mikael Granlund (9)
- GOAL3rd 4:115–2
Cutter Gauthier Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (8), Tristan Luneau (8)
- GOAL3rd 5:305–3
Jake DeBrusk Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Elias Pettersson (13), Brock Boeser (9)
- GOAL3rd 9:345–4
Jake DeBrusk Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Jamie Oleksiak (4), Elias Pettersson (14)
Grok Expert vs the model
Two separate picks, each graded on its own record.
Why Grok Expert likes it: LaCombe logs 27+ minutes most nights on Anaheim's blue line but is a passer first: 10 shots in 14 games (0.71 per game) and 1 or fewer in 12 of 14, including 1 against Vancouver on Oct 28. Anaheim is also on the second night of a back-to-back.
At lock ANA 3.99–2.74 VAN · 0.2 goals over 6.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp C. Gauthier · ANA
3 GL. Carlsson · ANA
ForwardB. Boeser · VAN
1 HT · 1 TKD. Helleson · ANA
3 BS · 2 HTG. Brisebois · VAN
1 BSL. Brossoit · ANA
4 GA · 23 SA
Data-Driven Pick · C. Gauthier anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Ducks vs Canucks pick result · Nov 3, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 6.5, with a 54% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day