NHLFinalCapital One Arena

Dallas Stars at Washington Capitals

Final · ESPN+

6–5

StarsCapitals

Final

Shot chart · 11 goals (G)

Dallas Stars

9-5-1 · W1

54 PF · 49 PA

Final

Washington Capitals

8-6-0 · L2

62 PF · 65 PA

DAL 69%WSH 31%

At lock: projected DAL 3.45–2.24 WSH

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3077063339

Winner called · off by 5

Most typical sim

DAL 4 – WSH 2

Final

DAL 6 – WSH 5

Winner: Stars (71%)
Spread: WSH +1.5 covers (56%)
Total: Over 5.5 (50%)
Score error (both teams)5

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
M. Heiskanen shots on goal	—	2	0	off -2
J. Chychrun shots on goal	—	3	5	off 2
M. Fehervary shots on goal	—	0	0	off 0
T. Harley shots on goal	—	1	1	off 0

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: DAL vs WSH

The model

How this number was built

DAL 3.45–2.24 WSH · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals +0.07 vs +0.09 · adj. shots -4.7 vs -3.5 · back-to-back: WSH, DAL · model WSH 3.1–3.0 DAL
Home field
+0.2 goals to WSH
Record
WSH 8-6-0 · DAL 9-5-1
Market prior
Blended 78% toward WSH -118 / total 5.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	T
DAL	1	4	1	6
WSH	0	3	2	5

How the goals went in

GOAL1st 8:561–0
Joel Kiviranta Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Radek Faksa (2), Thomas Harley (6)
GOAL2nd 0:232–0
Jason Robertson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (9), Roope Hintz (6)
GOAL2nd 3:183–0
Jason Robertson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Arttu Hyry (2), Tyler Myers (2)
GOAL2nd 5:434–0
Jason Robertson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (7), Roope Hintz (7)
GOAL2nd 11:004–1
Jordan Kyrou Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Dylan Strome (10), Cole Hutson (5)
GOAL2nd 14:505–1
Mikko Rantanen Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (10), Jamie Benn (4)
GOAL2nd 16:585–2
Boone Jenner Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Leonard (5), Martin Fehervary (4)
GOAL2nd 19:305–3
Jakob Chychrun Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (11), Jordan Kyrou (8)
GOAL3rd 1:236–3
Roope Hintz Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Esa Lindell (1), Jason Robertson (10)
GOAL3rd 12:556–4
Justin Sourdif Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (3), Ilya Protas (5)
GOAL3rd 18:586–5
Ryan Leonard Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (9), Jakob Chychrun (9)

Computer pick · Total

Over 5.5

52%

At lock DAL 3.45–2.24 WSH · 0.2 goals over 5.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop J. Robertson · DAL
3 G
J. Benn · DAL
1 BS · 4 HT
A. Beauvillier · WSH
4 HT
L. Bichsel · DAL
2 BS · 4 HT
J. Chychrun · WSH
Defenseman
J. Oettinger · DAL
5 GA · 25 SA

Data-Driven Pick · J. Robertson anytime goal

+165Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Stars vs Capitals pick result · Nov 3, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 5.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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