NHLFinalPPG Paints Arena

Vegas Golden Knights at Pittsburgh Penguins

Final · ESPN+

3–2

Golden KnightsPenguins

Final

Shot chart · 5 goals (G)

Vegas Golden Knights

10-5-2 · L1

71 PF · 57 PA

Final

Pittsburgh Penguins

5-8-2 · L1

62 PF · 71 PA

VGK 67%PIT 33%

At lock: projected VGK 3.91–2.71 PIT

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 913000751

Called it

Most typical sim

VGK 4 – PIT 3

Final

VGK 3 – PIT 2

Winner: Golden Knights (69%)
Spread: PIT +1.5 covers (55%)
Total: Over 6.5 (53%)
Score error (both teams)2

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
E. Karlsson shots on goal	—	2	2	off 0
S. Theodore shots on goal	—	2	0	off -2
N. Hanifin shots on goal	—	1	1	off 0
K. Letang shots on goal	—	1	2	off 1

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: VGK vs PIT

The model

How this number was built

VGK 3.91–2.71 PIT · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals -0.11 vs +0.45 · adj. shots -3.7 vs -1.2 · back-to-back: PIT, VGK · model PIT 3.0–3.3 VGK
Home field
+0.2 goals to PIT
Record
PIT 5-8-2 · VGK 10-5-2
Market prior
Blended 78% toward PIT -115 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	T
VGK	1	0	2	3
PIT	0	0	2	2

How the goals went in

GOAL1st 16:361–0
Tomas Hertl Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Mitch Marner (16), Jack Eichel (14)
GOAL3rd 1:091–1
Tommy Novak Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaedan Korczak (7), Spencer Stastney (3)
GOAL3rd 9:581–2
Rickard Rakell Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Tommy Novak (7), Kaedan Korczak (8)
GOAL3rd 11:192–2
Trevor Connelly Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeremy Lauzon (1)
GOAL3rd 19:253–2
Tomas Hertl Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (9), Jack Eichel (15)

Computer pick · Total

Over 6.5

53%

At lock VGK 3.91–2.71 PIT · 0.1 goals over 6.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Prop S. Crosby · PIT
0 G
I. Barbashev · VGK
Forward
J. Brazeau · PIT
1 HT
R. Andersson · VGK
3 BS
D. Carlile · PIT
1 BS
A. Hill · VGK
2 GA · 25 SA

Data-Driven Pick · S. Crosby anytime goal

+170Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Golden Knights vs Penguins pick result · Nov 3, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 6.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day