Minnesota Wild at Philadelphia Flyers
Final · ESPN+
4–2Shot chart · 6 goals (G)
At lock: projected MIN 3.52–2.25 PHI
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 896223132
- Winner: Wild (71%)
- Spread: PHI +1.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 5.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)0
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. York shots on goal | — | 1 | 1 | off 0 |
| K. Kaprizov shots on goal | — | 3 | 1 | off -2 |
| T. Sanheim shots on goal | — | 1 | 2 | off 1 |
| Q. Hughes shots on goal | — | 2 | 1 | off -1 |
Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MIN vs PHI
The model
How this number was built
MIN 3.52–2.25 PHI · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. goals -0.15 vs +0.70 · adj. shots -4.3 vs -2.0 · back-to-back: PHI, MIN · model PHI 2.7–3.0 MIN
- Home field+0.2 goals to PHI
- RecordPHI 4-9-4 · MIN 11-3-3
- Market priorBlended 78% toward MIN -185 / total 5.5
Line score
| P1 | P2 | P3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| PHI | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
How the goals went in
GOAL1st 4:061–0Matt Boldy Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (17), Jonas Brodin (6)
- GOAL1st 4:372–0
Michael McCarron Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (3), Bobby Brink (8)
- GOAL2nd 0:423–0
Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (9)
GOAL2nd 14:243–1Tyson Foerster Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jamie Drysdale (6), Matvei Michkov (3)
- GOAL3rd 1:483–2
Denver Barkey Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Porter Martone (5), Trevor Zegras (10)
- GOAL3rd 18:364–2
Danila Yurov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (11), Olli Maatta (3)
At lock MIN 3.52–2.25 PHI · 0.3 goals over 5.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp K. Kaprizov · MIN
0 GM. Boldy · MIN
2 TKN. Acciari · PHI
1 HT · 1 TKZ. Bogosian · MIN
DefensemanS. Benoit · PHI
1 BS · 3 HTJ. Wallstedt · MIN
2 GA · 25 SA
Data-Driven Pick · K. Kaprizov anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Wild vs Flyers pick result · Nov 3, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 5.5, with a 54% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day