Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning
Final · ESPN+
2–4Shot chart · 6 goals (G)
At lock: projected DET 2.48–3.72 TB
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 980111227
- Winner: Lightning (70%)
- Spread: DET +1.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Under 6.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)1
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Seider shots on goal | — | 2 | 1 | off -1 |
| J. Faulk shots on goal | — | 1 | 1 | off 0 |
Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: DET vs TB
The model
How this number was built
DET 2.48–3.72 TB · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. goals +0.58 vs -0.37 · adj. shots -1.9 vs -2.7 · back-to-back: TB, DET · model TB 3.5–2.7 DET
- Home field+0.2 goals to TB
- RecordTB 9-3-2 · DET 7-6-3
- Market priorBlended 64% toward TB -290 / total 6.5
Line score
| P1 | P2 | P3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| TB | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
How the goals went in
GOAL1st 7:540–1Brayden Point Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (15), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (6)
- GOAL1st 13:010–2
Brayden Point Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (16), Erik Cernak (3)
- GOAL2nd 8:410–3
Anthony Cirelli Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Gage Goncalves (3), J.J. Moser (1)
GOAL2nd 10:231–3Lucas Raymond Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (4)
- GOAL3rd 5:292–3
J.T. Compher Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (4), Justin Faulk (6)
- GOAL3rd 19:592–4
Ryan McDonagh Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none
Grok Expert vs the model
Two separate picks, each graded on its own record.
They agree: the model projects TB by 1.24, which also covers DET +1.5.
Why Grok Expert likes DET +1.5: Tampa's goal defense has been leaky (3.23 goals allowed per game, Vasilevskiy at .877), and its last three losses were all by one goal. Detroit has won 3 of 5, including 5-3 at Florida last night, so +1.5 against a -265 favorite wins unless the Lightning win by two or more.
At lock DET 2.48–3.72 TB · TB by 1.2 goals vs DET +1.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp N. Kucherov · TB
0 GV. Arvidsson · DET
1 HTA. Cirelli · TB
ForwardB. Chiarot · DET
1 HTJ. Carlson · TB
1 HTD. Tarasov · DET
1 GA · 13 SA
Data-Driven Pick · N. Kucherov anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Red Wings vs Lightning pick result · Nov 3, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is DET +1.5, with a 54% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day