NHLFinalSAP Center at San Jose

Calgary Flames at San Jose Sharks

Final · ESPN+

2–1

FlamesSharks

Final

Shot chart · 3 goals (G)

Calgary Flames

7-8-0 · W1

50 PF · 68 PA

Final

San Jose Sharks

7-8-1 · W1

59 PF · 79 PA

CGY 34%SJ 66%

At lock: projected CGY 2.67–3.77 SJ

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 1, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1063999322

Missed · off by 4

Most typical sim

CGY 3 – SJ 4

Final

CGY 2 – SJ 1

Winner: Sharks (68%)
Spread: CGY +1.5 covers (57%)
Total: Over 6.5 (51%)
Score error (both teams)4

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
S. Nemec shots on goal	—	1	2	off 1
K. Bahl shots on goal	—	1	0	off -1

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: CGY vs SJ

The model

How this number was built

CGY 2.67–3.77 SJ · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals -0.72 vs -0.56 · adj. shots -0.6 vs -0.4 · back-to-back: SJ, CGY · model SJ 3.0–3.1 CGY
Home field
+0.2 goals to SJ
Record
SJ 7-8-1 · CGY 7-8-0
Market prior
Blended 78% toward SJ -125 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	T
CGY	1	0	1	2
SJ	0	0	1	1

How the goals went in

GOAL1st 14:361–0
Adam Klapka Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Castagna (2)
GOAL3rd 9:142–0
William Stromgren Goal (1) Batted, assists: Adam Klapka (3), Jonathan Castagna (3)
GOAL3rd 11:572–1
Sam Dickinson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Misa (5), Jacob Trouba (8)

Computer pick · Total

Under 6.5

52%

At lock CGY 2.67–3.77 SJ · 0.1 goals under 6.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop M. Marchment · SJ
0 · needs 0.5 more
M. Backlund · CGY
2 BS
F. Bystedt · SJ
Forward
K. Bahl · CGY
1 BS
N. Allan · SJ
2 BS · 2 HT
D. Wolf · CGY
1 GA · 27 SA

Data-Driven Pick · M. Marchment Over 0.5 pts

-110Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Flames vs Sharks pick result · Nov 2, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 6.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day