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Colorado Avalanche at Chicago Blackhawks

Final · ESPN+

5–2

AvalancheBlackhawks

Final

Shot chart · 7 goals (G)

Colorado Avalanche

9-5-1 · W1

85 PF · 64 PA

Final

Chicago Blackhawks

4-10-1 · L1

46 PF · 83 PA

COL 68%CHI 32%

At lock: projected COL 3.83–2.58 CHI

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 1, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1047221703

Called it

Most typical sim

COL 4 – CHI 3

Final

COL 5 – CHI 2

Winner: Avalanche (70%)
Spread: CHI +1.5 covers (55%)
Total: Over 6.5 (51%)
Score error (both teams)2

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
C. Bedard shots on goal	—	3	4	off 1
N. MacKinnon shots on goal	—	4	2	off -2
A. Vlasic shots on goal	—	1	1	off 0
C. Makar shots on goal	—	2	2	off 0

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: COL vs CHI

The model

How this number was built

COL 3.83–2.58 CHI · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals -1.09 vs +0.71 · adj. shots -5.1 vs +2.3 · back-to-back: CHI, COL · model CHI 2.5–3.8 COL
Home field
+0.2 goals to CHI
Record
CHI 4-10-1 · COL 9-5-1
Market prior
Blended 64% toward COL -230 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	T
COL	2	2	1	5
CHI	2	0	0	2

How the goals went in

GOAL1st 0:570–1
Wyatt Kaiser Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (3)
GOAL1st 7:050–2
Roman Kantserov Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (6)
GOAL1st 15:231–2
Nazem Kadri Goal (3) Poke, assists: Gabriel Landeskog (5), Brent Burns (6)
GOAL1st 15:492–2
Jaden Schwartz Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: T.J. Hughes (3), Devon Toews (10)
GOAL2nd 13:383–2
Nazem Kadri Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (13), Nathan MacKinnon (16)
GOAL2nd 19:494–2
Jaden Schwartz Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Sam Malinski (6), T.J. Hughes (4)
GOAL3rd 17:385–2
Devon Toews Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none

Computer pick · Total

Under 6.5

53%

At lock COL 3.83–2.58 CHI · 0.1 goals under 6.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Prop C. Bedard · CHI
1 · covers 0.5
T.J. Hughes · COL
1 HT
B. Burns · COL
1 TK
I. Cole · CHI
Defenseman
M. Blackwood · COL
2 GA · 23 SA
S. Knight · CHI
4 GA · 28 SA

Data-Driven Pick · C. Bedard Over 0.5 ast

-105Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Avalanche vs Blackhawks pick result · Nov 2, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 6.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day