Edmonton Oilers at New York Rangers
Final · NHL Net
4–1Shot chart · 5 goals (G)
At lock: projected EDM 2.66–3.82 NYR
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1013813560
- Winner: Rangers (68%)
- Spread: EDM +1.5 covers (56%)
- Total: Over 6.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)4
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. McDavid shots on goal | — | 3 | 6 | off 3 |
| V. Gavrikov shots on goal | — | 1 | 3 | off 2 |
| A. Fox shots on goal | — | 1 | 2 | off 1 |
| E. Bouchard shots on goal | — | 2 | 3 | off 1 |
Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: EDM vs NYR
The model
How this number was built
EDM 2.66–3.82 NYR · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. goals +0.16 vs +0.54 · adj. shots -4.2 vs -2.4 · back-to-back: NYR, EDM · model NYR 3.2–2.9 EDM
- Home field+0.2 goals to NYR
- RecordNYR 7-7-1 · EDM 11-2-2
- Market priorBlended 78% toward NYR -125 / total 6.5
Line score
| P1 | P2 | P3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| NYR | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
How the goals went in
GOAL1st 0:501–0Connor McDavid Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (17)
- GOAL1st 6:192–0
Colton Dach Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (18)
- GOAL2nd 9:493–0
Evan Bouchard Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (15), Connor McDavid (30)
GOAL2nd 13:223–1Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Scott Morrow (1), Mika Zibanejad (9)
- GOAL3rd 19:204–1
Colton Dach Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (16), Ryan Shea (4)
At lock EDM 2.66–3.82 NYR · 0.02 goals under 6.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp L. Draisaitl · EDM
0 GC. Dach · EDM
1 BSO. Bjorkstrand · NYR
1 HTE. Bouchard · EDM
1 BS · 2 TKA. Fox · NYR
2 BS · 2 TKM. Tomkins · EDM
1 GA · 28 SA
Data-Driven Pick · L. Draisaitl anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Oilers vs Rangers pick result · Nov 1, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 6.5, with a 50% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day