Utah Mammoth at Philadelphia Flyers
Final · ESPN+
3–6Shot chart · 9 goals (G)
At lock: projected UTA 3.86–2.55 PHI
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1030591179
- Winner: Mammoth (71%)
- Spread: PHI +1.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Over 6.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)4
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. York shots on goal | — | 1 | 0 | off -1 |
| M. Sergachev shots on goal | — | 2 | 2 | off 0 |
| T. Sanheim shots on goal | — | 1 | 2 | off 1 |
| M. Weegar shots on goal | — | 2 | 0 | off -2 |
Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: UTA vs PHI
The model
How this number was built
UTA 3.86–2.55 PHI · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. goals -0.15 vs +0.00 · adj. shots -5.2 vs -2.6 · back-to-back: PHI, UTA · model PHI 2.9–3.1 UTA
- Home field+0.2 goals to PHI
- RecordPHI 4-8-4 · UTA 9-6-0
- Market priorBlended 78% toward UTAH -166 / total 6.5
Line score
| P1 | P2 | P3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| PHI | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
How the goals went in
GOAL1st 12:490–1Matvei Michkov Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Cates (3), Porter Martone (4)
GOAL1st 14:241–1Dmitri Simashev Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (6), Logan Cooley (9)
- GOAL2nd 1:061–2
Travis Konecny Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Jamie Drysdale (3), Christian Dvorak (4)
- GOAL2nd 5:501–3
Noah Cates Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (5), Jamie Drysdale (4)
- GOAL3rd 1:021–4
Christian Dvorak Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (4), Travis Sanheim (6)
- GOAL3rd 5:351–5
Oliver Bonk Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Cam York (1), Sean Couturier (4)
- GOAL3rd 16:002–5
Mikhail Sergachev Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (8), Clayton Keller (13)
- GOAL3rd 17:073–5
Logan Cooley Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (9), Clayton Keller (14)
- GOAL3rd 18:263–6
Cole Knuble Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Noel Acciari (1), Jamie Drysdale (5)
At lock UTA 3.86–2.55 PHI · 0.1 goals under 6.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp D. Guenther · UTA
0 GM. Carcone · UTA
4 HTN. Acciari · PHI
1 HTA. Duda · UTA
1 BSS. Benoit · PHI
1 BS · 6 HTK. Vejmelka · UTA
5 GA · 20 SA
Data-Driven Pick · D. Guenther anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Mammoth vs Flyers pick result · Nov 1, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 6.5, with a 55% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day