Minnesota Wild at Washington Capitals
Final · ESPN+
5–1Shot chart · 6 goals (G)
At lock: projected MIN 3.85–2.58 WSH
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1047368798
- Winner: Wild (69%)
- Spread: WSH +1.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Over 6.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)3
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kaprizov shots on goal | — | 3 | 2 | off -1 |
| Q. Hughes shots on goal | — | 2 | 3 | off 1 |
| J. Chychrun shots on goal | — | 3 | 4 | off 1 |
| M. Fehervary shots on goal | — | 0 | 0 | off 0 |
Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MIN vs WSH
The model
How this number was built
MIN 3.85–2.58 WSH · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. goals +0.07 vs +0.70 · adj. shots -2.4 vs -1.0 · back-to-back: WSH, MIN · model WSH 3.1–3.1 MIN
- Home field+0.2 goals to WSH
- RecordWSH 8-5-0 · MIN 10-3-3
- Market priorBlended 79% toward MIN -122 / total 6.5
Line score
| P1 | P2 | P3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| WSH | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
How the goals went in
GOAL1st 3:421–0Quinn Hughes Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jonas Brodin (5), Nico Sturm (2)
- GOAL1st 5:272–0
Michael McCarron Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (2), Bobby Brink (6)
GOAL2nd 19:542–1Justin Sourdif Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Cole Hutson (4), Anthony Beauvillier (2)
- GOAL3rd 17:373–1
Maxim Shabanov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (8)
- GOAL3rd 19:024–1
Kirill Kaprizov Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (8), Joel Eriksson Ek (9)
- GOAL3rd 19:355–1
Danila Yurov Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: David Spacek (1), Bobby Brink (7)
At lock MIN 3.85–2.58 WSH · 0.1 goals under 6.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp K. Kaprizov · MIN
1 GM. Boldy · MIN
1 HTA. Beauvillier · WSH
2 HTZ. Bogosian · MIN
3 BS · 1 TKJ. Chychrun · WSH
6 BS · 1 HTJ. Wallstedt · MIN
1 GA · 27 SA
Data-Driven Pick · K. Kaprizov anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Wild vs Capitals pick result · Nov 1, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 6.5, with a 54% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day